FXUS62 KTBW 261814
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
114 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
CLOUDS HAVE MANAGED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH
SO FAR TODAY...BUT LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT IN THE LAST HOUR OR
TWO...SO TEMPS SHOULD MANAGE TO GET UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
AS WELL. EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...DON'T SEE MUCH MORE THAN JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURES PASSES THROUGH. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...REINFORCING COOLER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND JUST A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...USHERING IN DRIER AIR AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN CLEAR OUT FOR SATURDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT FMY AND RSW. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12-14Z SUNDAY...THEN MVFR CEILINGS MAY RETURN ACROSS
THE TERMINALS ALONG WITH A FEW VICINITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS WELL OFFSHORE ARE STILL PRETTY ROUGH...BUOYS ARE REPORTING
WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 5 TO 6 FT. WINDS ARE ONLY IN THE 10-15KT
RANGE HOWEVER DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF...SO EXPECT THOSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
SPEEDS/SEAS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY RANGE AS THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY WEAK. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 35% OVER THE NATURE COAST
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LONG DURATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND
THEREFORE WILL JUST INCLUDE HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
FOR LEVY COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 45 64 51 67 / 10 20 20 10
FMY 51 72 58 73 / 10 20 20 10
GIF 43 64 49 69 / 10 20 20 10
SRQ 46 66 52 69 / 10 20 20 10
BKV 36 61 38 66 / 10 20 15 5
SPG 49 65 53 67 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...23/MCNATT
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON
