FXUS62 KJAX 150304 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WWA SECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009

.UPDATE...WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL TN TO
CENTRAL MS TO LA. UPPER LEVELS SHOWS BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FROM SC TO AL MOVING EWD. A
PERSISTENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS ORIENTED
WSW TO ENE AND CONTINUES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SLIDING EWD. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...MAY
THROW IN LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES FOR A FEW NRN
COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1-2 INCHES IN A FEW
SPOTS BY MID TUE MORNING. THOUGHT ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL
FLOOD WATCH BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MAJORITY OF BEST LIFT WILL BE
W AND NW OF THE CWA THROUGH TUE AND DUE TO ANTICIPATED LOCALIZED
NATURE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NOT HOIST ONE ATTM.

AS FAR AS DENSE FOG...MOST GUIDANCE FAVORS DENSE FOG THOUGH IT MAY
NOT LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT RATHER GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
VISIBILITIES WITH TIME. FEEL REASONABLY CONFIDENT OF THE COASTAL
AREAS HAVING DENSE FOG AT SOME POINT SO WILL HOIST A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
UP A BIT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND TWEAKED
TONIGHT'S POPS. POPS NEAR 70% ARE ADVERTISED OVER EXTREME NW ZONES
TAPERING SHARPLY TO 10-20% OVER NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH SEA FOG OFF THE COAST
AND RADIATIONAL COMPONENTS OVER THE MAINLAND...FORECAST SHOULD BE
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH ALL INDICATIONS OF A DENSE FOG EVENT. DENSE
FOG OVER THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL MOVE INLAND AND WITHOUT MUCH
OF A TRANSITION...SEND EAST COAST TERMINALS INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY
LATER THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A LONG LASTING DENSE FOG
EVENT THAT COULD PERSIST PAST 14Z ON TUESDAY. MORE UNCERTAINTY
INLAND WHERE DENSE FOG WILL APPROACH FROM BOTH SIDES AT GNV BUT
UNCLEAR IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL. STILL...RECENT TRENDS
GIVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT DENSE FOG INCLUSION FOR THEM AS 
WELL.

&&

.MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE WATERS AND
HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES AS CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE. SEAS STILL COMING DOWN OVER THE OFFSHORE
PORTION AND HAVE DECREASED GRID VALUES BY A FOOT THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CLAY-DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL 
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.

AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA 
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST 
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 
     20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/DEESE/MCALLISTER