FXUS62 KMLB 280905
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
405 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...COOL AND DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...
...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LIKELY FROM SOUTHERN JET NEXT WEEK...
TODAY/TONIGHT...
H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GOMEX/LWR MS VALLEY WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY. AS IT DOES...SFC AND LOW LVL WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY VEER FROM TO THE N BY MIDDAY...THEN TO THE NE
THIS AFTN. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD TO
BEGIN TO MODIFY...THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR IS CONSIDERABLE (PW
VALUES OFF THE 00Z SOUNDINGS WERE AOB 0.35" STATEWIDE) AND WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP.
PREDAWN TEMPS THIS MRNG RANGE ARE IN THE L40S/L50S AND MAY FALL
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGS BY DAYBREAK. WITH READINGS STARTING OUT SO
LOW AND WINDS OUT OF THE NW/N FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70F MARK THIS AFTN.
ADDING TO THE COOLING EFFECT WILL BE AN INCREASING HIGH CLOUD DECK
PUSHING IN FROM THE GOMEX...SHIELDING THE CENTRAL PENINSULA FROM
FULL SUN. TONIGHT...THE BLANKETING EFFECT OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
COMBINE WITH THE WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO ALLOW MIN READINGS TO
RECOVER A FEW DEG FROM THIS MRNGS READINGS...THOUGH MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST STILL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BLO 50F.
SUN THRU MON NGT...WRN ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND
ACROSS NORTH FL THROUGH SUN NGT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND
CONTINUE MOVEMENT EWD AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE ERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FL LATE
MON. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL SUN/MON WITH A WARMING TREND
AS TEMPS MODIFY TO CLIMO SUN AND SLGTLY ABOVE MON/MON NGT. NEXT
MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHC MON NIGHT AS PREFRONTAL MOISTURE/CONVG
COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHRA...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SPOTS.
TUE-SAT...STNRY FRONT OVER CNTRL FL TUE WL SERVE AS A PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR PRECIP. A VIGOROUS H50 SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN NEARING THE
WRN GOMEX AS A SFC LOW QUICKLY TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WRN-CTRL
GOMEX. BDRY OVER ECFL WILL LIFT NWD TUE NGT/EARLY WED AS THE LOW
MOVES QUICKLY NE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST...RETURNING SEWD AS A
COLD FRONT WED NGT/THU MORNING. ADVERTISED BAROCLINIC PATTERN
FAVORS GOMEX SQLN FORMATION WITH STRONG 120KT+ JET OVER NERN GOMEX
AND DECENT AMPLITUDE TROUGH AT H50 LEADING TO STRONG MID/UPR
FORCING. 50-60KT H85 JET ALSO CROSSES THE NRN HALF OF FL WED
MORNING/AFTN. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS
OVER ECFL DURING THIS WINDOW. FROPA WILL BRING COOLER/DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THU AFTN THRU FRI.
YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM/GULF LOW IS ADVERTISED BY GFS AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE ON EURO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE
PENINSULA ON A SOUTHERN TRACK AROUND NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR ALL SITES THRU 29/12Z...CIGS AOA FL120.
&&
.MARINE...
BOTH THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE DATA BUOYS INDICATE WIND/SEA CONDITIONS
HAVE FALLEN BLO SCA CRITERIA. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
TODAY AS THE CENTER OF A DLM RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS THE GOMEX/DEEP
SOUTH TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE. SFC PGRAD WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN
AS IT DOES...ALLOWING SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS TO DROP BLO 12KTS BY
MIDDAY BEFORE VEERING TO THE NE BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL FOLLOW BY
DECREASING TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE...3-4FT OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...THEN AOB
3 FT AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. WIND/SEAS ON THE LOW SIDE INTO TUE AND
BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE IN LINE WITH HIGHER WINDS LATE TUE AND INTO
WED WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SFC/TRANSPORT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N/NE THIS AFTN AS THE CENTER OF A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH. THE RESULTING
ONSHORE COMPONENT...WHILE WEAK...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT AFTN
RH VALUES FROM DROPPING BLO CRITICAL LVLS ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTN...AS WELL AS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. THE DRY AIR OVER THE
CENTRAL/NRN INTERIOR COUNTIES WILL TAKE LONGER TO MODIFY AS THE
STRENGTH OF THE XPRT FLOW WILL BE BLO 10KTS...THUS CRITICAL
DURATIONS OF LOW RH VALUES WILL BE MORE LIKELY. RFW WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 65 49 74 53 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 68 47 76 53 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 67 51 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 69 52 77 55 / 0 0 0 10
LEE 67 44 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 68 47 77 54 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 68 47 77 56 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 68 52 78 54 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...NONE
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
