FXUS64 KSHV 151035
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
435 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
IF WE IGNORE THE WINDS AND LOOK AT DEW POINTS WHICH GIVES US THE
BEST INDICATION OF THE COLDER AIR...ONE WOULD SAY THE COLD FRONT
IS JUST NORTH OF A MONROE LA...LUFKIN TX LINE THIS MORNING. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA...WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. RADAR THIS MORNING IS SHOWING MORE CONVECTION THAN MODELS
ANTICIPATED ON THE RUNS YESTERDAY...AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF AN ISOLATED STORM PRODUCE SOME PEA SIZE HAIL THIS MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPS SHOW THE STRONG IMPACT THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ON
THE ARKLATEX TODAY...WITH CURRENT READINGS SHOWING FREEZING TEMPS
BEING OBSERVED IN NORTHERN MC CURTAIN COUNTY...WHILE AREAS SOUTH
OF I20 ARE STILL PLAYING NEAR 60. A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE I20
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD WILL SEE THEIR HIGH THIS MORNING...AS TEMPS
SHOULD WILL FALL AFTER FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS A DRY PATTERN
HAS SPREAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT TRENDED MORE ON THE
COOLER SIDE.
ELEVEN
&&
.AVIATION...
A STRONG...BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...JUST SOUTH OF A JSO TX...TO
SHV...TO ELD LINE. PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT AND UPSTREAM UPPER TROF WILL
MAINTAIN POSITION OF BOUNDARY FOR AT LEAST NEXT FEW HOURS. TWO LINES
OF CONVECTION HAVE BOTH BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING SINCE 06Z...ONE
JUST NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...ELEVATED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A CLAP OF
THUNDER...AND A STRONGER LINE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN TIER OF CWA...WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS PSBL. WHILE THIS
STRONGER LINE ONLY AFFECT THE LFK SITE UNTIL AROUND
12-15Z...REMAINING TAF SITES...WITH EXCEPTION OF TXK...MAY SEE SCT
ELEVATED SHOWERS. CIGS ACROSS THESE SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS WELL
AS VIS FOR THE MOST PART...WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING INTO THE 30S.
SCATTERED COLD AIR CUMULUS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z MOST
SITES...TRANSITIONING TO VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 00Z. POSTFRONAL
N-NE WINDS THIS MORNING OF 5 TO 10 KTS MAY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
THIS AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS PSBL. /VII/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 52 34 52 33 55 / 40 0 0 0 0
MLU 51 33 49 33 53 / 60 0 0 0 0
DEQ 48 26 51 27 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
TXK 49 29 51 30 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
ELD 48 30 50 30 55 / 30 0 0 0 0
TYR 49 33 53 33 58 / 30 0 0 0 0
GGG 51 33 52 33 57 / 40 0 0 0 0
LFK 54 36 54 34 56 / 60 0 0 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/07
