FXUS63 KLMK 300841
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
341 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
745Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED
THROUGH SDF AND BWG. EXPECT IT TO MAKE IT THROUGH LEX WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 10Z-11Z THIS
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF RAINFALL WITH
THIS FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH ENGULFING ALL OF OUR KY COUNTIES AT 745Z
THIS MORNING. WILL RELY ON THE 0Z SPC WRF TO TIME PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA (FA) AS IT HAS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE SOLN WHICH LOOKS
TO BE VERIFYING THE BEST THIS MORNING. WITH THAT SAID...LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE OVER BY 12Z WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND AREAS THROUGH
18Z. OBSERVATIONS AND LIGHT RADAR ECHOES THIS MORNING DO INDICATE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP BAND SO HAVE ADDED THIS
INTO THE FORECAST FROM 12Z TO 18Z.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK IT/S WAY IN
FROM THE SW. THEREFORE...NO PRECIP EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TODAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPS...THEY WILL BE QUITE TRICKY TODAY AND HAVE RELIED ON
THE SREF FOR 3 HOURLY TEMP GUIDANCE AS IT HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET THIS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THEN THIS AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 40S FOR HIGHS.
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ALLOWING
GOOD RAD COOLING INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR LOWS. LASTLY...WE COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY - SUNDAY)...
...TIS THE SEASON...
WILL FOCUS ON THE WED/THU PERIOD OF THIS FCST...WHERE WE WILL SEE
LIQUID AND FROZEN PRECIP TYPES.
OUR RECENT FCSTS HAVE BEEN SIDING WITH THE EURO/CANADIAN MODELS FOR
THIS PERIOD AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO...THOUGH THE GFS AND
ESPECIALLY THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE COME CLOSER TO THE EURO/CANADIAN
FOR THIS PERIOD. GFS STILL CONSIDERED A FAST/FARTHER EWD OUTLIER
WITH MOVEMENT OF UPR/SFC LOWS THRU THE PERIOD.
UPR LEVEL LOW MOVES ACRS TEXAS TUE NIGHT AND THEN NEWD WED TO NEAR
THE MO BOOTHEEL WED EVE...OPENS TO A TROF WED NIGHT AS IT MOVES ACRS
OUR FA. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC LO POSITIONED IN THE LA VCNTY WED
MORNING...EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD TO THE SCNTRL KY/NCNTRL TN BORDER
BY WED EVE. WORTH NOTING IS THE GFS TRACK FARTHER EAST TO PIKE CO KY
BY THAT TIME.
WE HAVE BASED OUR FCST ON THE EURO/CANADIAN TRACK PREVIOUSLY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO. ONE CHANGE HERE IS THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE
SPED UP THE SYSTEM.
SO HERE IS THE MOST LIKELY WX FOR THE PERIOD AS OF NOW:
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR FA WED. RAIN WILL THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE SFC LO
TRACK/NEAR THE UPR LEVEL LO TRACK/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC COOLING. HPC
PAINTS A 2-4 INCH SWATH OF SNOWFALL ACRS OUR NWRN/NRN FA BY 12Z THU
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST. BREAKS DOWN TO NEAR 2 INCHES FOR
LOUISVILLE AND 1-2 FOR BWG AND LEX. THIS IS SNOWFALL...NOT ACCUMS.
LOOKING AT TEMPS BY 12Z THU...READINGS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER/MID
30S...SO WOULD EXPECT SOME MELTING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
WET/RELATIVELY WARM GROUND. TEMPS WILL CLIMB LITTLE THU.
WILL TREND THE FCST TOWARD HIGHER POPS FOR WED/WED NIGHT AND
TRANSITION PRECIP TYPE FROM OUR NWRN FA TO OUR SERN FA FROM RAIN TO
SNOW BY 12Z THU. THEN SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EARLY
FOR THU AS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A TRANQUIL BUT COLD WEEKEND WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION. THE
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A ZONAL FLOW
BUT NOT UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SO WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER. READINGS WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE SOME SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN COOL.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
LIFR CIGS MAY AFFECT AREA TERMINALS...
WITH THE COLD FRONT BEARING DOWN ON SDF AND BWG...WINDS WILL SOON
SHIFT AT THESE TWO TERMINALS TO NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN. THE FROPA AT LEX SHOULD BE AROUND 08Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
DRIZZLE IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-MORNING. CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AND
PERHAPS WITH POCKETS OF LIFR CIGS. VSBYS SHOULD STAY IFR OR
HIGHER...BUT WITH AREAS OF THICKER DRIZZLE...BRIEF LIFR VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIFR CAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM
ROUGHLY 08-13Z. HAVE TEMPOS FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AT LEX AND BWG
TOWARDS 12Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL BLANKET THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE EAST BETWEEN 16-19Z. UNTIL
THEN...WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM -DZ AND BR. LOOKS LIKE
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR TOWARDS THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE FOG MAY BE
A FACTOR TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........AML
LONG TERM.........DK
AVIATION..........AL
