FXUS62 KMHX 221629
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1129 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM TUESDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WEST
VIRGINIA TO GEORGIA KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES COOL
ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT OTHER THAN
MINOR CHANGES FOR TRENDS. MAXIMUM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER ERN CANADA
CONTINUES TO WEDGE S ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE
WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS
OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ONLY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRES CENTERED TO THE N BRING COOL NLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE M/U40S NE TO L50S S EXPECTED EACH DAY.
PERIODS OF CLOUDS MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME BUT ENOUGH
BREAKS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS IN THE U20S/L30S EXPECTED INLAND WITH M/U30S
COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1130 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFFSHORE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE SMALL POPS/QPF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER A MILD DAY
SATURDAY WITH MAXES INTO THE LOWER 60S...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NEXT THREAT OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH
NEXT IN THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 930AM TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING MVFR AT PGV BUT RECENT OBS
THERE HAVE BEEN SUSPECT AND LOCAL AIRPORT SOURCES ARE LOOKING INTO
THE ISSUE. OTHERWISE VFR TO RULE TODAY WITH HIGH PRES LEAVING
LIGHT NW/N WINDS AND MINIMAL SKY COVER.
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE WITH HIGH PRES. HIGH
CLOUD COVER INCREASES WED AND THU AROUND AN ADVANCING UPPER
RIDGE...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERS AND THICKENS ALONG WITH INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES BY CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM. ASSOCIATED LOWER FLIGHT RULES ALSO PSBL BY CHRISTMAS DAY.
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 930AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES JUST INLAND OF THE WATERS LEADING
TO LIGHT TO MODERATE NW/N WINDS TODAY MAINLY AOB 15 FT...AND SEAS
AOB 4FT. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST...CONTINUED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS THAN MODEL FCSTS ESPECIALLY FOR WARM EDDY E OF
LOOKOUT. HIGH PRES WILL BE REINFORCED FROM N WED...LEADING TO
INCREASE IN WINDS WED NIGHT INTO THU. STRONGEST WINDS DURING FCST
PERIOD EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT LATE FRI INTO SAT. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF MINIMAL SCA FOR
NOW.
WW3 AND LOCAL SWAN CONTINUE TO HAVE POOR INITIALIZATION OF 4 FT SEAS
AT BUOY 41036 DUE TO CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER MID 70S WATER TEMPS.
LATEST SST ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE EDDY OF 70+ DEG WATER E OF
LOOKOUT...SUPPORTING HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AMZ156. WW3 GENERALLY
ACCEPTED WED-SAT WITH BUILDING SEAS DUE TO INCREASING WINDS THU
NIGHT-SAT...ALONG WITH SOME LONGER PERIOD E-NE BACKSWELL FROM
DISTANT N ATLC STORM.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...JBM/MW
MARINE...JBM/MW
