FXUS61 KILN 251619
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1119 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A DEEP DOUBLE TROF OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION. INITIAL S/W OVER SRN LOWER MI TO GET KICKED
NE AS SECOND S/W DROPS INTO THE UPR MS VLY. LATEST VIS SATL IMGRY
SHOWS A POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT WORKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO/NE KY...
BUT THIS SUNSHINE WL BE SHORT LIVED IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTN. A FEW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS THE NW AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK MENTION CLOSER TO THE UPR SYSTEM.
BASED ON CLD COVER AND LOW LEVEL CAA HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
MAINLY OVER THE NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE NAM WHICH APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. THE NAM DOES NOT BRING AS MUCH PRECIP AND COLD AIR INTO
THE FA AS THE OTHER MODELS DO. SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE FA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE GREATEST FORCING. TROUGH PIVOTS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL START
OUT AS RAIN. MODEL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE OUT ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIP ENDING BY MID DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
BY SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. WENT
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES THROUGH THANKSGIVING AND THEN
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS APPARENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL WARM
TEMPS A LITTLE EACH DAY. CONVERSELY...THE WARMER AIR WILL BE MORE
MOIST AND RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER ON SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. 12/0Z AND 6/18Z GFS RUNS ARE IN OPPOSITION WITH
EACH OTHER REGARDING MASS FIELDS THIS FAR OUT. 12/0Z RUNS APPEAR
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND THIS IS THE WAY TO TREND
FORECAST TODAY. MODELLERS ARE SUGGESTING AN ODD BLEND NEARING THE
ECMWF FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FCST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER OHVLY IS SUGGESTED FOR THE BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS
THOUGHT PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN BREAKING UP AS DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT EXPECT TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN
THE VFR DECK FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL BACK IN BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO MAINTAIN VFR CEILING AT MOST
LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH CANNOT DISCOUNT POSSIBILITY OF HAVING SOME
LOWER THAN 3000 FT WITH KDAY BEING THE MOST LIKELY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS UP TO 23 KT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AREA WIDE. SOME
SHOWERS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. PROBABILITY AT ANY
ONE SITE IS LOW. AND EVEN IF THEY DO OCCUR...THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MVFR
VISIBILITIES LIKELY AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...
