FXUS64 KHGX 060204
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
804 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THIS EVENING AND THEN WILL BE HOLDING
STEADY OR WARMING UP SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. WE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO MINS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE ZFPHGX ON TRACK. 37

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/ 

AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A BKN/OVC MVFR
DECK (SOMEWHERE AROUND 2000 FEET) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN A COUPLE
HOURS BEFORE OR AFTER SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
(IFR LEVELS POSSIBLE). AREAS OF RA/SHRA WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z AND THEN
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE...AND THESE LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOR WINDS...ANTICIPATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
UNDER 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 5 TO 11 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
BE NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY MORNING. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE MET RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT
BEFORE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DWPTS OVERSPREAD.
PW'S FCST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1-1.4" ON SUNDAY. STRENGTHENING
LLJ...DEVELOPING SFC TROF NEAR THE COAST...AND APPROACHING S/W
ENERGY FROM THE W SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF -RA/DZ/SHRA
COVERAGE ACROSS SE TX ESP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVNG HOURS. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW COMPLETELY SATURATED LAYER AT 800MB AND BELOW SUN
AFTN & NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATE SUN
NIGHT AND MON MORNING AS THE S/W'S PASS OFF TO THE EAST. THEN THE
SAME GENERAL PROCESS STARTS ALL OVER AGAIN MON AFTN. HIGH PRES
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FALLING LEE SIDE PRESSURES WILL AGAIN ALLOW
ONSHORE FLOW TO RESUME AND QUICKLY TRANSPORT MOISTURE (SITTING
RIGHT OFF THE COAST) BACK INLAND. ANTICIPATE GOOD CHANCE OF
DRIZZLY RAINY WX AGAIN LATE MON AFTN AND INTO TUE. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY PUSHING THE BULK OF MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST (FOLLOWING
THE STRONGER LLJ) BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE
NIGHT. WED/THU SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRES MOVED SWD INTO THE NRN
GULF COAST. MODIFICATION TREND THEN EXPECTED FRI AS THE HIGH MOVES
FURTHER E. 47

MARINE...
MAY GET SOME SCEC CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS THE 
ONSHORE WINDS STRENGTHEN. LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... 
THE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS FOR ABOUT A SIX-HOUR TIME 
PERIOD. THESE WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD 
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND 
OF MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE A 
STRONGER FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEGINNING 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING A COASTAL TIDAL PROBLEM MAY 
BEGIN AS STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. THE CURRENT MODELS 
INDICATE THAT THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY 
THURSDAY EVENING.  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$