FXUS64 KTSA 120848
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 AM CST SAT DEC 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING VERY SLOWLY AS 
WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT. CLOUDS
THAT HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE HELPED 
RAISE TEMPERATURES. VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING 
SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT SO FAR NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING REACHING THE 
SURFACE. AT THIS POINT BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL ESCAPE 
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HAVE KEPT ALL BUT OSAGE AND PAWNEE 
COUNTIES AS BEING LIQUID. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT 
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EVEN THERE EXPECT 
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY 9 AM. PRECIPITATION 
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AND WILL CARRY ONLY A FEW 
HUNDREDTHS IN THE FORECAST. 

VERY GOOD WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY BUT COLD FRONT 
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL 
OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT VARIES AMONGST THE MODELS  
RANGING FROM RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO ABOUT MID DAY. HAVE COMPROMISED 
THE HIGHS FOR MONDAY TRYING TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WARMING BEFORE 
TEMPERATURES START TO FALL IN THE COLDER AIR. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA 
SHOULD SEE HIGHS MONDAY ABOUT THE SAME AS THE WARM READINGS ON 
SUNDAY.

THEN THE COLD AIR ARRIVES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED 
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SLOW WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL IS
EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

AFTER TODAY...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION BUT 
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY IN SOUTHEAST 
OKLAHOMA WHERE SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF IS POSSIBLE BUT ANY
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  39  60  48 /  20   0  10  10 
FSM   43  34  58  43 /  50  10  10  10 
MLC   44  40  64  49 /  40  10  10  10 
BVO   45  31  58  40 /  20   0  10  10 
FYV   44  34  54  43 /  50  10  10  10 
BYV   43  35  55  44 /  60  10  10  10 
MKO   44  34  59  43 /  20  10  10  10 
MIO   44  34  54  43 /  20  10  10  10 
F10   44  36  62  47 /  20  10  10  10 
HHW   45  41  67  49 /  70  10  10  10 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....15