FXUS64 KLZK 010237
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
837 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL THIS EVENING
AND CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO LIFT
OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN TEXAS.
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IN RESPONSE
WITH RAIN RETURNING TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND WILL
BASICALLY BE LEFT AS IT. I DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVER
THE SOUTH BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND A QUICK PEEK AT
THE NEW NAM12. PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT...BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE STATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT NOW WELL SE OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.
OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WERE COMMON ACROSS ARKANSAS...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SOME SPOTS ACROSS
THE NWRN CWA COULD SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S. DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF TUE BEFORE THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE RAIN
CHANCES LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED...THEN THE POTENTIAL MIX OR SWITCH
OVER TO SNOW WED NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL LIFT NE TOMORROW...WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE GULF
COAST OF TX. POPS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING FROM SW TO NE...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF WED. THEN...AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL OFF LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT WED...WHERE RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
BRIEFLY BEFORE MOST PRECIP MOVES NE OF THE CWA. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS NRN AND NWRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AR COULD ALSO SEE SOME WET FLAKES
BEFORE THE STORM MOVES EAST. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
BRISK NRLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS LOW FOR THU...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE
LOW 20S ACROSS NRN AR...MID 20S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
SRN CWA. THE COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE PLACE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...PROMOTED
BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD...FORECAST PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES INDICATE THAT RETURN FLOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST
THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 33 56 42 44 / 0 10 60 90
CAMDEN AR 35 55 44 46 / 0 30 80 80
HARRISON AR 32 56 39 40 / 0 10 50 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 33 54 43 45 / 0 20 70 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 33 55 43 46 / 0 20 70 90
MONTICELLO AR 35 55 44 48 / 0 30 70 70
MOUNT IDA AR 31 54 42 44 / 0 20 70 80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 32 56 40 42 / 0 10 50 70
NEWPORT AR 33 56 42 44 / 0 10 70 80
PINE BLUFF AR 35 55 43 47 / 0 20 80 80
RUSSELLVILLE AR 32 55 42 44 / 0 10 70 80
SEARCY AR 32 54 42 45 / 0 10 70 90
STUTTGART AR 34 55 43 46 / 0 20 80 80
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...60
