FXUS63 KICT 082119
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE DEPARTING WINTER STORM THIS
EVENING...AND BITTER COLD AIR TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY AND AREA PROFILER NETWORK INDICATES
POWERFUL MID/UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS WESTERN KS.
PROLONGED STRONG & DEEP WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
HAS RESULTED IN HEFTY SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5-8 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KS...WITH 2-5 INCH AMOUNTS GENERALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST
KS...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET/SNOW HAS RESULTED IN
TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
AT/ABOVE FREEZING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE HAS MADE FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND MAINLY WET ROADS.
AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES EASTWARD...ANTICIPATE SNOW WILL BE ON THE
WANE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PV
ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL RESULT IN
PERIODIC LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
KS INTO THIS EVENING...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL APPROACH
1-3 INCHES. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS...MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW AS UPPER LOW ROTATES
THROUGH...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 1 INCH.
FAVORING THE RUC13 MODEL FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS IT APPEARS TO BE
INITIALIZING THE BEST. WILL ALLOW CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES TO
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING...AND THEN THE DEVELOPING
STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT.
THE DEVELOPING STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS EVENING...AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. ANTICIPATING SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-40
MPH...WITH TEMPERATURES TUMBLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING & DRIFTING SNOW/REDUCED VISIBILITIES
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...ALONG WITH BITTER COLD WIND
CHILLS...FALLING BELOW ZERO NEARLY EVERYWHERE BY LATER TONIGHT. WIND
CHILLS READINGS SHOULD DIP BELOW -15 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL KS...SO
WENT WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING AND LINGERING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. COULD BE LOOKING AT RECORD LOWS AND RECORD COLD HIGHS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS/NIGHTS. LOCATIONS WITH SNOWCOVER WILL BE PARTICULARLY
COLD...AND SHOULD DROP BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGHING AND INCREASING ZONAL FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES MODERATING SOME (ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL) BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIALLY MORE WINTERY WEATHER AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES...DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A MAJOR WINTER EVENT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY AN OVERRUNNING/FREEZING DRIZZLE EPISODE SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST MORE BITTER COLD AIR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO BETTER FINE
TUNE THE FORECAST.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINTER STORM/UPPER TROF ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT MIDDAY WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING...AND WELL
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIP
WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH BULK OF PRECIP MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 9 16 4 25 / 50 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 6 14 0 23 / 70 0 0 0
NEWTON 8 14 1 24 / 70 0 0 0
ELDORADO 10 16 4 26 / 60 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 12 19 7 28 / 40 0 0 0
RUSSELL 0 11 -9 18 / 80 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 1 11 -6 19 / 70 0 0 0
SALINA 5 11 -7 18 / 90 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 6 13 -2 21 / 80 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 17 24 9 30 / 50 0 0 0
CHANUTE 15 20 8 28 / 70 0 0 0
IOLA 14 19 7 28 / 80 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 16 22 8 29 / 60 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ068>071-
082-083-091>094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067-068.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>050.
&&
$$
