FXUS63 KMKX 142041
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
240 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL BE EXITING EAST SHORTLY.  DROPPED 1 
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL WI 
EARLIER.  DRIER...COLDER AIR WILL NOW BE DRAWN INTO SOUTHERN 
WISCONSIN ON INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.  UPSTREAM WEAK SHORT WAVE 
OVER WRN MN LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT 
BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WOULD REMAIN A DUSTING. CLOUDS FROM 
THIS WEAK WAVE SHOULD SLOW UP CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATER 
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.  SIX HOUR PRESSURE RISE BEHIND THE EXITING 
LOW PRESSURE AREA INCREASES TO 4 TO 8MB TONIGHT.  EXPECT GENERALLY 
10 TO 20KT WINDS AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS 
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT THAT STRONG AND HELD PARTIALLY IN CHECK BY 
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. 

AT THESE TEMP AND WIND LEVELS...EXPECTED WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN 
WARMER THAN ADVY CRITERIA. WL DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 18 BELOW OVER 
SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATER TONIGHT.   

CORE OF COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WED WITH LITTLE RECOVERY 
IN TEMP ON TUE.  WIND CHILLS WL DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW AGAIN 
TUE NIGHT WITH LESS WIND.  OTHERWISE COLD AND QUIET INTO 
THURSDAY...HOWEVER WL NEED TO WATCH SMALL THREAT OF -SHSN LAKE 
EFFECT ON THU INTO THU NGT AS WINDS TURN TO THE ENE.  MOISTURE 
APPEARS SHALLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAK...SO WL HOLD OFF ON 
INTRODUCING ANY -SHSN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM/THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CONTROLLED BY POLAR VORTEX 
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND 
EASTERN CONUS. LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS 
WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AND WILL BRING A FEW PERIODS OF 
-SN OR SCATTERED -SHSN TO SOUTHERN WI DURING THE PERIOD.  FOR NOW WL 
CONT LOW POPS FOR FRI AND SAT AND ADD LOW POPS FOR SUN AS WELL.  AT 
THIS POINT ECMWF AND GFS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON CARRYING 
STRONGEST SHORT WAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.  

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING MOVING AWAY FROM THE GREAT 
LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. INCREASING 
NORTHWEST WINDS/COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING 
WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THE LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES 
TONIGHT. AT THE MOMENT NOT SEEING CONDITIONS UPSTREAM THAT WARRANT 
THE KUES AND KMSN MAV MOS CAT 1 AND 2 CEILINGS THROUGH 6Z 
TONIGHT...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THOSE VALUES UPWARDS. LOOKING FOR VFR 
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND 
DRY AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.  

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS 
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. TIGHT GRADIENT TO DEVELOP 
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED LOW AND PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE. GOOD MIXING OF 
COLDER AIR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. GRADIENT 
REMAINS IN PLACE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS EASING TUESDAY 
EVENING.  

&&

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT THRU WED...ABOVE AVERAGE
THURSDAY...AVERAGE
EXTENDED PERIOD
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...BELOW AVERAGE
MON...AVERAGE
&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LMZ643>646 FROM 00Z/15 TO 03Z/16.

&&

$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...MBK
AVIATION/MARINE...PC