FXUS66 KMFR 280946
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
131 AM PST SAT NOV 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS EXITED OUR REGION WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM FRONT
MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TODAY WILL STAY NORTH WELL NORTH 
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS. UNDER CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT
EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM IN WESTERN VALLEYS AND PERSIST
INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW AND DRY WEATHER. MODELS START TO DIVERGE MONDAY WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF FORMING A FAIRLY STRONG CUTOFF LOW AROUND 142W AND
DRIFTING THE LOW EASTWARD TO PERHAPS IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. OF THE TWO ONLY THE GFS
HAS A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. I FAVOR A COMBINATION OF THE GFS AND
GLOBAL GEM. EXPECT A WEAK CUTOFF LOW TO FORM MONDAY AND SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTHEAST NOT IMPACTING OUR AREA AT ALL. WITH MORE ENERGY IN
THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW EXPECT SHORTWAVE ENERY TO WEAKEN
THE RIDGE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE WILL
REBUILD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE RIDGE RETROGRADES SOME THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLER WEATHER MAY OCCUR IN THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS OUT THAT FAR...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH
CONTINUED NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEARING IS OCCURING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. A FEW LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
CONTINUE NEAR LAKEVIEW BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THERE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE IF NOT SOONER. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE ROGUE...ILLINOIS AND UMPQUA BASINS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL MIDDAY. THE COAST WILL HAVE VFR CEILINGS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
OUT. CAVU CONDITIONS TODAY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS 
     UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR 
PZZ376.

$$

DDG