FXUS62 KMHX 052025
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY. A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL DRAG A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. STRONG COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE DUE EAST OF
CAPE LOOKOUT ACCELERATES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MINIMAL
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR AREA TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW RAPID DRYING WHICH WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE WATER WITH SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPS
EXPECTED WELL INLAND. MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY PLEASANT DAY FOR
DECEMBER WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. TEMPS DROP
QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS AGAIN DOWN IN THE 30S BEFORE A
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS KICKS IN TOWARD MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AND
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM12 INDICATE INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE NAM12
INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF. AS A RESULT...WILL HAVE 20-30 PCT POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THE HIGH WEAKENS TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AS NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINK PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER 00Z WEDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 11 AM SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HPC/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW PRES MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH STRONG SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. RAIN
WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WEDS
BEFORE ENDING WEDS NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY...MOST TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL END THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST. RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED
LATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL PICK UP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TO AROUND
15-25 KNOTS...BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT TO AROUND 10
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH. EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH
ONLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. GENERALLY
VFR SUNDAY EVENING BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE AS AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
POWERFUL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A
COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
RETURNS AGAIN THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...12Z GFS/NAM IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL
FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER NAM FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS
WILL PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z
WAVEWATCH DATA INITIALIZED POORLY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS...AS DID THE IN-HOUSE SWAN MODEL. WILL MAKE NO CHANGE TO
CURRENT WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO.
THEREAFTER WAVEWATCH SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE WATERS WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WARM FROM WILL LIFT THROUGH FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG
SMALL CRAFT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY OF 25-30
KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST 
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-135-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA