FXUS66 KEKA 292216
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
216 PM PST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE 
WEATHER PATTERN FORE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH
STORM TRACKS WELL TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE EKA CWA. SUNNY/DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH GOOD DECOUPLING EXPECTED...THERMAL RIDGING IN
PLACE SHOULD PREVENT AS WIDESPREAD OF FROST ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF FROST ATTM...HOWEVER IF TEMPERATURES
DROP AS FAST AS LAST NIGHT...AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
OVERNIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. OFFSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE PAC NW. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH
BUILDING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS...WILL RESULT IN
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
LIGHT WINDS SHIFT ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRING IN
SOME HAZY CONDITIONS.

MODELS COMING TO A MORE COMMON SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE 
TRAVERSING THE UPPER RIDGE.  ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWING A 
WEAKENING AND DRY SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ATOP THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE. 
WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH A DRY/SILENT POP FORECAST.  

FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND INCONSISTENT WITH 
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN. 
POPS TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS/ECMWF BOTH
BRING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE REGION. CANADIAN GLOBAL MAINTAINS
STRONG RIDGING PATTERN WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST COAST.
HENRY

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEAK 
OFFSHORE FLOW AND PATCHY VALLEY/COASTAL FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. 
THE COASTAL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR. MARINE CLOUDS 
WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC TOMORROW NIGHT. CLARK

&&

.MARINE...MODELS CONTINUE THEIR DISPARITY BEYOND ABOUT 48 TO 72 
HRS...THUS LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS POINT. 
IN THE NEAR TERM WINDS HAVE COME WELL DOWN OFF THEIR PEAK FROM EARLY 
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS IN THE FURTHEST OUTER WATERS. SCA 
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEAS THROUGH ALL WATERS UNTIL 9PM MON. AT 
THIS POINT THE SWELL WILL BE BELOW 10 FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY 
INTO WED. HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS HAVE COME WELL OUT OF 
AGREEMENT...SO THE SWELL AND WAVE FORECAST BEYOND WED IS VERY LOW 
CONFC. EVEN TUE AND WED HAVE DECAYING CONFDC. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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