FXUS64 KCRP 221129
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
529 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN TYPICALLY FOG PRONE AREAS WILL
BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. GRADIENT WILL RELAX ONLY SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/
SHORT TERM...RETURN FLOW IN EVIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
TYPICALLY FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
BURNING OFF.
MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON INCREASING WINDS. MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SPINNING UP AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THE DETAILS OF STRENGTH
AND LOCATION ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT...A CONSISTENT THEME IS A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD HOLD JUST SHORT OF A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND TODAY...BUT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH SHOULD BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE AREA. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL MAKE FOG FORMATION LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...TIMING OF FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...WITH THE FRONT
COMING DOWN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECTING SOME RAINFALL MAINLY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SOME UPPER SUPPORT ALSO PROGGED SO DID
MASSAGE POPS A BIT MAINLY OVER THE EAST. ALTHOUGH CAPPED...UPPER
SUPPORT COULD PROVIDE SOME THUNDER EASTERN THIRD AND ESPECIALLY
GULFMEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY INLAND AREAS...WITH MAYBE A BIT REMAINING OVER THE OFFSHORE
BEFORE NOON. MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD
MEAN SUNNY SKIES BY NOON. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL MEAN WARM DAY
AGAIN AS COLDER AIR DELAYED...THEN COOLER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES IN
AFTER THAT. MODELS GENERALLY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE BACK FOR THE
WEEKEND TO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN BUT ECMWF NOW
LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARD THAT DIRECTION SO WILL MENTION RAIN ALL
PORTIONS OF CWFA ON SATURDAY. STILL...MAIN FORCING WILL BE UPGLIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY/COASTAL TROUGH WHICH DEVELOPS WITH GFS THE
STRONGEST ON THIS FEATURE...SO FOR NOW WILL NOT INCREASE POPS AS
ECMWF JUST STARTING TO GO WETTER AND UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH WILL BE TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE UPGLIDE. A DRY INTERVAL FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST A PART OF MONDAY...DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK. GFS IS FASTEST WITH UPPER SYSTEM AND ECMWF/NOGAPS/CANADIAN NOT
BRINGING EFFECTS OF SYSTEM UNTIL TUESDAY. THUS...WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS AND HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF
RAINFALL TIL TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE GOOD BLOCKING RIDGE APPEARS
TO BE MORE LIKELY THE SOLUTION (HIGH AMPLITUDE) AND NO RAIN
PREVIOUSLY IN FORECAST. FINALLY...ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES
MAINLY BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND ISC COLLABORATION. GFS IS FLIPPING
BACK AND FORTH ON HOW FAR SOUTH COLD AIR WILL GO FROM RUN TO
RUN...SO WILL RATHER ADJUST VALUES UP OR DOWN BY TRENDS THAN BY
BUYING GFSX-MOS VALUES WHOLE-HEARTEDLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 62 76 55 72 / 10 10 10 40 10
VICTORIA 74 62 75 52 68 / 10 20 30 50 10
LAREDO 78 61 81 52 71 / 10 10 10 10 0
ALICE 79 61 81 52 72 / 10 10 10 30 10
ROCKPORT 71 64 72 56 68 / 10 20 20 50 10
COTULLA 75 57 77 47 70 / 10 10 10 20 0
KINGSVILLE 79 62 80 54 72 / 10 10 10 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 73 66 75 57 71 / 10 10 10 50 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
JV/71...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM
