FXUS64 KSHV 050928
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
328 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DOMINATE THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY TO THE MID
20S IN LUFKIN AND NATCHITOCHES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ON TAP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS...IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BE IN
PLACE...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE STILL FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS OF MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY PROVIDING FOR
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS...COMBINED WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT CHANCE
OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO
SHIFT ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE MEAN FLOW...WILL
SET UP AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WITH PRECIPITATION PROBS INCREASING
CONSIDERABLY FOR TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING USHERING ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ALTHOUGH SKIES AND WEATHER WILL IMPROVE...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. /05/
&&
.AVIATION...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST TERMINALS ARE WELL WITHIN VFR
TERRITORY THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY NOTED AROUND KMLU. IN GENERAL...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH 06/1200 UTC. SKIES WILL BE
SKC JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE TODAY. SOME CI/CS SHOULD RETURN FROM THE
W AFTER 05/2000 UTC OR SO...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SE-S TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS E. /D. BUTTS/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 47 32 51 40 55 / 0 10 30 50 20
MLU 46 27 52 42 54 / 0 10 30 60 30
DEQ 45 24 46 32 52 / 0 10 30 40 20
TXK 46 32 50 37 51 / 0 10 30 40 20
ELD 46 26 52 37 53 / 0 10 30 60 30
TYR 47 35 53 38 53 / 0 10 30 40 20
GGG 48 33 52 39 55 / 0 10 30 50 20
LFK 47 34 55 42 60 / 0 10 30 50 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
05/D. BUTTS/
