FXUS61 KOKX 262031
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
331 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT 
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY. IT TURNS 
PROGRESSIVE COLDER STARTING MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST OF 
TWO COLD FRONTS. TUESDAY IS A BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD DAY IN THE WAKE 
THE SECOND FRONT WHICH IS ARCTIC IN NATURE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN 
BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE A COASTAL STORM
POSSIBLY APPROACHES FOR THE START OF THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE 1011 HPA LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CONTINUES 
TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND HAS GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING SLIGHTLY AND REACHING A POSITION NEAR KBDR
BY AM.

QPF IS 1/2 TO 3/4" ON AVERAGE IN A STRATIFORM NATURE. THUS ONLY 
PONDING FROM PCPN AND SNOW MELT ARE AN ISSUE. DUE TO THE SNOW
MELT/FROZEN GROUND...SOME BASEMENT FLOODING FOR THOSE PRONE TO IT
IS POSSIBLE TOO. NOWCASTS WILL COVER THESE MINOR HAZARDS.

WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 50 AND THE RAIN...EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL SNOW 
COVER TO MELT...EVEN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION (THOUGH 
PILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR SOME TIME).
 
WINDS GUSTING TO GALE FORCE AT THE COAST WILL SLACKEN TO LESS THAN 5 
KT TOWARDS MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME DENSER FOG. FOR NOW,
HAVE INCLUDED ONLY THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG. 

TEMPS OVERNIGHT ARE STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GETTING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER STARTING MONDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL 
PASSAGES EACH DAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER SW CT IN THE MORNING TRACKS TO MAINE BY AFTERNOON 
WITH COLD ADVECTION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. AIR BEHIND THE 
FRONT IS MP IN NATURE...SO TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY 
RISE DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION. PCPN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WILL 
LIKELY BE OVER JUST AFTER 8 AM. 

NEXT FRONT ON EARLY MONDAY IS CP IN ORIGIN AND RESULTS IN TEMPS
STAYING IN THE 30S MONDAY AFTN. UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT FOR 1-2 TENTHS OF QPF. PROFILES ARE
GENERALLY SNOW INLAND AND MIXED ALONG THE COAST. BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPS AND QPF...COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
THE COAST BEING TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

ARCTIC FRONT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT USING GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND HAVE 
INCLUDE FLURRIES...THOUGH A LIGHT DUSTING CAN BE EXPECTED. TEMPS ON 
TUESDAY STAY IN THE 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS 
GUST TO 40 MPH...BUT APPEAR TO STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE THU NGT THRU SAT PERIOD. 

1030 HIGH PRES BUILDS EWD TUE NGT AND IS OVER THE CWA WED. MAINLY 
SKC AND COLD. TEMPS CLOSE TO MEN GUIDANCE AND BLW CLIMO.

TROF CURRENTLY NEAR 35N/150W WILL TRACK INTO THE SWRN CONUS/WRN
MEXICO BY TUE. AS THE TROF PROGRESSES EWD...IT WILL INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW ALONG THE NRN GULF BY THU. STRONG NRN PAC
JET THEN ALLOWS AMPLIFICATION OF THE NRN STREAM AND LOW PRES
DEEPENS AS IT PASSES NEAR OR S OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM.
CURRENT PROGS RESULT IN A WARM CSTL/COLD INTERIOR SOLN...BUT IT
IS TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE A SOLID LOCK ON THE INTENSITY AND TIMING
ATTM. OFFICIAL FCST RAISES POPS IN THE THU AFTN THRU SAT PERIOD.
INITIAL PCPN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF SN DUE TO EVAP COOLING
WITH RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN PLACE FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. PCPN THEN
TRANSITIONS TO RA ERN COASTS...A MIX METRO AND WRN COASTS...WITH
ALL SN NW INTERIOR.

LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF OCCLUDE THEN STALL THE LOW NEAR CAPE
COD OVER THE WEEKEND. H5 RIDGING OVER LABRADOR APPEARS TO BE THE 
FEATURE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE STALLING OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
SOLN WOULD TRANSLATE INTO BLUSTERY AND COLD WITH PERIODS OF -SN
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE SAT FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING NY METRO AREA. STRONG EAST FLOW
PREVAILS AHEAD OF LOW. DIRECTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT BEFORE
BACKING THROUGH NE TO NW. DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME ERRATIC ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT BUMPY CONDITIONS AT ALL AIRPORTS BELOW
FL050 DUE TO GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS DO NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA SO
NO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT EXPECT MANY PIREPS WITH MENTION OF
GAIN/LOSS IN SPEED.

PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MAY BE
DENSE SUN AM. SUBSEQUENT TAFS MAY NEED A MENTION OF LIFR/VLIFR FOR
A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 06-12Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 
SUNDAY AFTN...VFR. 
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR...SUB-VFR AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS. 
TUE-WED...VFR WITH STRONG NW WINDS. 
THU...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DELMARVA HAS RESULTED IN
GALES FOR ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE TONIGHT - THOUGH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DUE TO THE LOSS OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 15 FT ON THE OCEAN
THIS EVENING AND THEN START TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR COLD FRONT AND THEN INCREASE TO GALES IN
THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT PASSES LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRES W OF THE REGION TUE NGT WILL RIDGE EWD OVER THE CSTL
WATERS WED. THE HIGH WILL THEN EASE NWD ON THU AS LOW PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE CSTL WATERS
FRI THEN STALL N OF THE WATERS SAT.

LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS TUE NGT WITH MRGNL GALES ON THE OCEAN
WILL SUBSIDE ON WED. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD TO SCA LVLS THU NGT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS FRI AND SAT
DUE TO DEEPENING LOW PRES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF PRECIPITATION ON AVERAGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OVER
SUFFOLK COUNTY WAS AROUND 1.5" THIS AFTERNOON...SO MINOR NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY...BUT NO RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING IS
EXPECTED DESPITE THE SNOW MELT.

DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINTRY PCPN ON MONDAY. DRY TUE-WED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...JST
SHORT TERM...JST
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...JMC/JST
HYDROLOGY...JST