FXUS65 KBOI 082134
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
234 PM MST TUE DEC 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NOSING INTO IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH CLOUDS IN WESTERN
CANADA WILL BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT. MUCH VALLEY SNOW COVER TREASURE/MAGIC VALLEYS AND
ELSEWHERE TO COMBINE WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS FOR WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT TO SUB- ZERO (F)
TEMPERATURES. LOCALIZED FREEZING FOG A POSSIBILITY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE LOOKS TO HAVE ENOUGH LIFT
TO WRING OUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS NE VALLEY COUNTY
WEDNESDAY INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER THERE THROUGH
THURSDAY. BUBBLE HIGH CONTINUES OVER SW IDAHO THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SOME INCREASE IN E-W SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OREGON AS
A SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES AVERAGE 10-20F BELOW
NORMAL AND HIGHS MODERATING FROM AROUND 20 BELOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 15 BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. DROPPED HIGHS THURSDAY BY
5-10F AS DEEP FREEZE DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM. SO NOW IT LOOKS TO
BE FRIDAY BEFORE EVEN THE BOISE TO MOUNTAIN HOME AREA EDGES UP TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK AND NOT UNTIL SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE
VALLEY AS MENTIONED NEXT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS STILL IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT FOR THE FRIDAY TIME PERIOD BY HAVING THE FLOW BACK TO THE 
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL SLOWLY BRINGING A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES 
INTO THE AREA BY PUSHING THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS OUT OF THE AREA. 
TEMPERATURES THOUGH WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL. DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS CREEP INTO PLAY BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GFS CONTINUES
ITS THINKING THE PAST FEW DAYS BY PUSHING THE SUBTROPICAL JET
NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING IN WETTER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS BOTH THOSE DAYS. THE ECM DID SHOW THIS SAME
TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT NOW THE 12Z RUN SHOWS THAT THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER AND CONDITIONS DRIER THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE DONE A BLEND OF THOUGHTS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE
LATEST EC MODEL. THIS STILL LEAVES CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT HIGHER THAN CLIMO.

FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES AND POPS WILL REMAIN
AROUND CLIMO AS WE NEED TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE WESTERLIES
OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE POCKETS OF BRIEF DENSE 
FZFG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN AND AROUND KBOI. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. 

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....CR/DD
AVIATION.....CR