FXUS64 KMRX 270753
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
253 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS 
MORNING...EVEN ACROSS SWRN VA...WITH JUST WEAK RETURNS PASSING SE 
ACROSS SE KY AND SWRN VA. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A BIT LATER 
THIS MORNING...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED...SO 
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE IN THE FAVORED AREAS WHERE 
LOW LEVEL FORCING MIGHT SQUEEZE OUT A STRAY SNOW SHOWER...FLURRY OR 
SPRINKLE. 

OTHERWISE...RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW 25 TO 35 KNOTS LOW LEVEL 
JET WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO WILL CONTINUE 
THE WIND ADVISORY AS ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SMOKIES
...NE TN AND SW VA. 

MOS MAX AND MIN TEMPS CLOSE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL PRODUCE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND 
TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PULL EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG AND 
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE AREA 
THROUGH MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY AND
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE 
OUT OF TEXAS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ASSOCIATED 
CYCLOGENESIS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TOWARD THE 
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FAIRLY DECENT LARGE 
SCALE ASCENT AS WELL AS DEFORMATION ZONE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY THURSDAY 
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             54  33  63  37  65 /   0   0   0   0  10 
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  51  31  59  37  62 /   0   0   0   0  10 
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  31  61  37  62 /   0   0   0   0  10 
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              44  26  57  32  62 /  10   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
     JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...
     SOUTHEAST GREENE...UNICOI.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: RUSSELL...WASHINGTON...WISE.

&&

$$

TG/DH