FXUS61 KCAR 290251
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
951 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS SO WILL DROP WIND ADVISORY.
EXPECT WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH, MAINLY
THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE DISCONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST MAINE
AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH PER LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES
WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH STILL
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. ANY LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS WILL DIMINISH EARLY SUNDAY
LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DOWNEAST. ANOTHER LOW WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING SNOW CHANCES LATE. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN 
AREAS WHERE OVERNIGHT SNOW TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN AN INCH OR 
LESS...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION DOWNEAST. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY
WHILE CROSSING DOWNEAST AREAS MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY...WHERE ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
COULD ACCUMULATE. PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN
DOWNEAST MONDAY...LIMITING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE LOW WILL
EXIT THROUGH THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT UPSLOPE CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND IT SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY 
WITH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND THEN CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY 
BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN 
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THERE ARE NOW SOME BIG DIFFERENCES 
BETWEEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS STICKING TO THE MORE 
WESTERN SOLUTION THAT BRINGS RAIN INTO THE ENTIRE CWA...ON THE OTHER 
HAND THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THIS STORM OFF TO THE 
SOUTHEAST JUST OFF THE COAST WITH MORE OF THE PRECIP TO THE SOUTH. 
ALSO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACKS MEANS A DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP 
TYPE. FOR RIGHT NOW GOING WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOSTLY RAIN FOR THE 
SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA AND RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN HALF UNTIL THE 
TRACK CAN BE NAILED DOWN AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. 
THURSDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF 
SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. 
FRIDAY THE PRECIP SHOULD BE GONE AND LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND 
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUIET CLOUDY DAY. 
FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD USED GMOS AND CORRECTED AS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING ESPECIALLY KCAR/KPQI/KHUL TERMINALS...OTHERWISE EXPECT ALL
TAF SITES TO GO VFR LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. 
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
MVFR/IFR...WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR...CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS
DOWNEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: BUOY DATA INDICATES GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DECREASE OVER
ANZ051 AND ANZ052 WATERS SO WILL LOWER GALE TO SCA. WILL CONTINUE
GALE OVER ANZ050 OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT STILL TIGHT OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
DEVELOP LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ051-052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOSTER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...DUDA/FOSTER
MARINE...DUDA/FOSTER/NORCROSS