FXUS63 KMPX 030458
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1058 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009/

NEXT WEATHER MAKER OF SIGNIFICANCE IS THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SE
OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THIS CIRCULATION...THERE IS AN AREA
OF PV ADVECTION DEVELOPING FROM EASTERN SD INTO SW MN. THE RUC
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS FORCING OVERNIGHT BUT THE MAIN FORCING
FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN THURSDAY MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
NAM REFLEC SIMULATION IS A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST INTO NW MN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WWD ESTIMATE OF SNOWFALL A TOUCH FARTHER WEST OVER
SW MN LOOK REASONABLE. H5 HEIGHT FALLS MAINLY OVER SE SD INTO
CENTRAL IA WOULD SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. WILL UP POPS A BIT AND RUN
THE BEST AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. GENERAL
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST
FLURRIES THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL DROP DOWN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON FRIDAY
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND EAST
PART OF THE CWA. CLOUDS MAY HOLD UP OVERNIGHT TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
GUIDANCE TONIGHT BUT THEN CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WAVE ON THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE THE SLIDE IN TEMPS SHOULD LAST INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN
A BIT OF MODERATION IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF SOME
SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IN THE PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ON
THE LOW SIDE WITH THE GENERAL WEST TO EAST UPPER JET THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE THE LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SOUTHERN
MN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE POPS FOR FAR SOUTHERN MN DO NOT SHOW MUCH
VARIATION AMONG THE MEMBERS AND ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 20 RANGE ON
AVERAGE. 

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DEALS WITH FAIRLY ACTIVE SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY ACROSS NE SD...WITH A STRONG OMEGA FIELD IN SW/WC MN.
THIS HAS PRODUCED BRIEF PERIODS OF -SN WITH VSBY DROPPING TO 1SM
AT RWF. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY ONLY AFFECT RWF FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS AND THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN FAR SW MN
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT VSBY MVFR OR HIGHER. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD BETWEEN 06/12Z WHERE RWF MAY BRIEFLY DECREASES TO IFR VSBY
IN -SN...BUT AM NOT FORECASTING THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE...-SN IS LIKELY DURING THE FIRST 18 HRS...BUT DUE TO THE
DEPTH OF THE STRONGEST LIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
TOO MUCH. CEILINGS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO PERSISTENT MOISTURE
FEED FROM THE NORTH AND RH FIELD BELOW 85H STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MVFR CEILINGS. ..JLT..

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JPR/JLT