FXUS63 KIND 271035
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
535 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  MVFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF 
A MLI-EVV LINE WHILE CLEAR SKIES WERE THE RULE TO THE WEST.  
CLEARING HAS SHOWED...BUT A FEW BREAKS HAVE OPENED UP IN AREA OF 
CLOUDS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY AND 
PROBABLY A LITTLE LONGER INDY AND EASTWARD.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
RIDGE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND 
INDIANA BY 2800Z. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AND THEN CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON 
AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT.

WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TO MID MORNING...THEN WINDS 
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING REST OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS 
EASTWARD.   

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR
SUNDAY.

AT 06Z SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND A LITTLE SNOW TO THE AREA
WAS EXITING TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATOCU EXTENDED FROM WISCONSIN TO
ILLINOIS AND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS RUN. WILL USE A BLEND.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE MORNING. SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS
ALREADY ARRIVED THERE. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE CLEARING
LINE ACROSS ILLINOIS HAS SLOWED A LITTLE. GIVEN ALL OF THIS FEEL
THAT BULK OF AREA WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON. FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS MAY TAKE
TIL MID AFTERNOON. MAV AND MET ARE CLOSE AT MOST SITES FOR HIGHS
SO USED A BLEND MOST AREAS. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WENT COOLER
THAN MAV BUT NOT AS COLD AS MET.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND PROVIDES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT ARE SIMILAR
AND LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE PASSING MID CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. BEST MOISTURE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT FORCING ON SUNDAY WILL NOT BE THAT
IMPRESSIVE. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT A COUPLED UPPER JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
INCREASE THE FORCING. CURRENT LOCATION OF BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SO WILL GO HIGHEST POPS THERE. ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT FAR SOUTHERN AREA WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE
FOR RAIN...SO UPPED POPS THERE TO LIKELY. OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS
WERE USED.

MODELS NOW INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. THUS REMOVED OR CUT BACK POPS AS NECESSARY FOR
MONDAY. 

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CS
AVIATION...JH