FXUS64 KOUN 280959
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
359 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MILD AND BREEZY DAY...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER WITH THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL PRIMARILY
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAKENING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON...WINDS EXPECTED TO 
BE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA WHEN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES APPROACH
THEIR THRESHOLDS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ENOUGH
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO KEEP
RH VALUES JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT STILL FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION TONIGHT AND 
EARLY SUNDAY. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG NEAR AND AHEAD OF FRONT
LATE TONIGHT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SOME DRIZZLE OR WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL FORECASTS OF POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. GFS
AND ECM MOST AGGRESSIVE ON SUNDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. WE WILL MAINTAIN GFS-
INITIALIZED POPS WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LIGHT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD CUTOFF LOW THAT IS PROGD TO PROGRESS 
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH POPS WERE EXPANDED AND RAISED SLIGHTLY ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...WE DID NOT GET AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECM. AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL IN
LIQUID FORM.

AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS UPPER LOW IS LOSING INFLUENCE OVER
REGION...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH NOT CANADIAN IN ORIGIN...THIS AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TONIGHT/SUNDAY.
REINFORCING SHOTS OF DRIER/COLDER AIR STILL FORECAST TO ENTER
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS AND AT THIS POINT...WE WILL STICK WITH THE
COLDER ECM WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  46  50  32 /   0  10  40  20 
HOBART OK         71  41  49  32 /   0  10  50  10 
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  49  52  35 /   0  10  40  20 
GAGE OK           69  36  50  23 /   0  10  40   0 
PONCA CITY OK     69  45  51  30 /   0  10  30  10 
DURANT OK         70  53  57  40 /   0  10  50  40 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/11