FXUS62 KILM 280928
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
428 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY...AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WILL 
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE 
EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE 
EASTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
FEW COASTAL COUNTIES...ALL THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING.

AT THE MOMENT...MID-LEVEL SHEARED VORTICITY EXITING THE DELMARVA 
COAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A TIGHTENED AFC PG MAINLY AFFECTING
THE ILM NC COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD LAST INTO DAYLIGHT THIS MORNING.
THIS HAS KEPT SFC WINDS BUSY OVERNIGHT...IE NW TO N AT 4 TO 7
KT...WHEREBY PREVENTING A FULL RAD COOLING NITE. IN
ADDITION...LOWER SFC DWEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NW AS A RESULT AND MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR FROST PRODUCTION
BUT THE POTENTIAL TO REACH AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK STILL ON
TARGET. THE ILM CWA WILL BECOME MORE-SO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AS RIDGING BOTH SFC AND ALOFT BECOME THE
DOMINANT WX FEATURES TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF THE ILM SC COUNTIES INDICATE THIS SFC RIDGING
ALREADY POKING INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS HAVING DROPPED TO NEAR
CALM AT TIMES WITH LATEST TEMPS HAVING REACHED 32 OR LESS ALONG OR
WEST OF I-95. THIS SHOULD END THE GROWING SEASON AT THESE
LOCATIONS IF THIS HOLDS FOR SEVERAL MORE HRS. THE REMAINING WARNED
COUNTIES SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT WITH UP TO 3-4 HRS LEFT.

WITH THE TRANSITIONING TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH DURING THE
NEAR TERM...ONLY CLOUD FEATURE TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE
SOUTHERN STREAM CI LATE TODAY OR MORE LIKELY TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS QUITE THIN AND SHOULD NOT MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN TONIGHTS
EXCELLENT RAD COOLING POTENTIAL. THE SFC BASED INVERSION IS
PROGGED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET TODAY
AND PERSIST THRUOUT THE NIGHT. SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE IT BEEING TOO
DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR FOG AND/OR STRATUS ESPECIALLY WITH
MODELLED PWS PROGGED BELOW 0.35 INCHES. WILL NEED TO KNOW WHICH
COUNTIES ARE LEFT TO FOLLOW UP WITH ADDITIONAL FREEZE/FROST NPWS
FOR TONIGHT. THE DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO DECIPHER AND WORK THIS OUT
FOR TONIGHTS POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE A NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MAXIMUM 
TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS 
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.  WE 
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE 
WEST.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE 
NAM BEING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THAN THE 
GFS.  THE RESULT IS A 3 TO 6 HOUR DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  FOR 
NOW...FORECAST WILL DEPICT A SMALL CHANCE INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON 
AND CHANCES AREA WIDE MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR 
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BRIEFLY UNDER THE CONTROL OF HIGH 
PRESSURE WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 
60S.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW 
PRESSURE BEGINS EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING NORTH.  
MINS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  RAIN IS 
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH 
THE REGION.  MAXIMUMS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 
60...THOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE 
LOW.  IF IT PASSES INLAND...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORMS 
COULD OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS 
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP VFR AT ALL TERMINALS 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DECREASING GRADIENT WILL EASE WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKC 
CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT EVENING.

DECENT S/W TROF ROTATING THRU THE UPPER TROF WILL EXIT OFF THE 
DELMARVA COAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY 
DIRECT AFFECTS...HOWEVER IT WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT 
INTO SAT PREVENTING A DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE 
POSSIBILITY OF A SFC BASED INVERSION LOOKS RATHER GRIM DUE TO THE 
DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS 
REMAINING QUITE ACTIVE JUST OFF THE SFC VIA LATEST KLTX VWP. 
WITH PLENTY OF MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FOG OR STRATUS 
WILL BE HELD AT BAY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. FOR THE DAY SATURDAY... 
WILL EXPECT SKC THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT AT 
ALL TERMINALS. BY LATE SATURDAY SOME HIGH LEVEL CI AT 25K FT WILL 
BEGIN TO FILTER IN...BUT NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH 
THE TAF PERIOD. SFC BASED INVERSION TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET 
SATURDAY WITH WINDS DECOUPLING RATHER QUICKLY. THIS A RESULT OF 
RIDGING FROM SFC THRU ALOFT OVERTAKING THE AREA FROM THE GULF COAST 
STATES...AND THE DEEP UPPER TROF LIFTING NORTHEAST. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH MONDAY. POSSIBLE IFR WITH RAIN MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE IFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE THE SCEC THROUGH 7 AM FOR
THE NORTHERN 2 ZONES DUE TO THE TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THESE
WATERS. THIS RESULTING FROM THE STRONG SHEARED VORTICITY THAT IS
EXITING THE DELMARVA COAST AT THE MOMENT. ALL AREA WATERS WILL BE 
FINALLY OBSERVING A DIMINISHING TREND IN UNISON WITH REGARD TO THE
WIND FIELD...WITH THE LOCALLY PRODUCED SEAS QUICKLY FOLLOWING
SUIT. ALL OF THIS OCCURRING DURING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT... BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. WAVEWATCH3
SEAS HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE DURING THE 1ST 6 TO 12 HRS BUT QUICKLY
CATCH UP THERE-AFTER.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL SEE INCREASING SW FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT 
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  
WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS 
DIRECTIONS SHIFT FROM SW MONDAY TO NW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE 
OF THE FRONT.  SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT SUNDAY TO 4 TO 5 FT BY 
MONDAY NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FROM MONDAY 
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL SEE A LULL IN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY 
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.  N TO NE WINDS OF 
10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  WE COULD SEE 
SHIFTING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS 
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ046.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032>034-039.

NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ100-101.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-097-
     099.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DCH/JDW