FXUS63 KSGF 142339
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
539 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDY SKIES...COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND A LITTLE BIT OF DRIZZLE 
WERE OBSERVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRANSLATED ACROSS THE REGION 
TODAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST...PULLING IN A 
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER 
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE 
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BEING MEASURED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...I 
HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY GO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE IN JUST ABOUT 
EVERY PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. 

THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SOME ISSUES WITH WIND CHILL 
VALUES.  GIVEN THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL 
SYSTEM...A BLUSTERY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE 
SINGLE DIGITS. 

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN IN RESPONSE TO 
THE SURFACE HIGH PROGRESSING EAST.  A BRIEF WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR 
AT THIS POINT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.  YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING IN 
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR.  NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED 
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED BY A DEEPENING 
EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH...A STEADY PIPELINE OF CANADIAN AIR 
WILL BE DIRECTED INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH 
POTENTIALLY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE 
DEEP...AND WILL HAVE BIG TIME RAMIFICATIONS REGARDING PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.  THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN 
PACIFIC WILL BE COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN...WHILE ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION 
POSSIBLE WILL ORIGINATE FROM RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE 
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS IS A TYPICAL WINTER PATTERN THAT COULD SET 
UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND DRY WEATHER.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A COUPLE OF SPEED MAXES WILL 
MIGRATE AROUND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH THIS 
UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THIS WILL CREATE A COUPLE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF 
LIFT.  HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE...ANY FORM OF 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
MORNING AS STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME THOUGH
CANT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE OF FLURRIES...JUST NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND
CLEAR BY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MORNING FLIGHTS
INTO TERMINALS ACROSS THE OZARKS.

HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$