FXUS63 KFGF 030307 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
907 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. WHEN LOOKING AT THE 
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...THE AREA IS BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE E. WHEN COMPARING THE 
MODELS...THE MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
THUS...DID NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST TONIGHT. 

WHEN LOOKING AT THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE 
COOLER THAN EXPECTED IN NE ND AND WARMER IN SE ND AND WC MN. AS A 
RESULT...NEEDED TO TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT 
LOW TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH 
FEW CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERIODIC MVFR VSBYS DUE TO -SN. WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE N AROUND
10 KTS. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPS. A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
SHEAR AXIS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL
PREFERENCE. 

FOR THU/THU NIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT WITH PERHAPS AN INCH IN SOME AREAS.
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN HINGE ON CLOUD COVER AND NOT MUCH DIURNAL
RANGE EXPECTED.

FOR FRI...THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE E AREAS BEFORE
MOVING AWAY BY FRI NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THE CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

BY SAT...THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT WITH TEMPS GETTING CHILLY SAT
MORNING IF CLEARING CAN MOVE E. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE
AREA FRI NIGHT THOUGH...SO NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL MOVE IN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL SAT WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE FOR W AREAS.

LONG TERM [SAT NIGHT-WED]...
NO DISTINCT SYSTEMS TO LOCK ONTO IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST...IT IS 
POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AT SOME POINT. 
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SIGNAL WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING ANY VERY LOW POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. MAIN UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL TIER OF THE
COUNTRY UNTIL LATE. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS MEANS THE COLDER AIR
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
NG