FXUS63 KICT 051734
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1134 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2009
.UPDATE...
LATEST TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE THE CURRENT
FORECAST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS A
RESULT...WE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
COX
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AIRCRAFT DATA IS ALSO SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN FEATURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY. AS THIS WAVE SLIDES EAST...IT WILL CAUSE THE LEE SIDE TROF
TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO DRAW PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALSO
INCREASE IN THE 280-290K LAYER WHICH MAY YIELD TO SOME
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE IN THE RUSSELL TAF SITE AROUND
12Z. NOT REAL CONFIDENT ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES AT SLN/HUT
RIGHT NOW...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
SITES AFTER DAYBREAK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT CNU WHERE THEY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 18Z.
COX
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY ON SUN.
IN THE MEAN TIME...LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH GENERALLY SOUTH SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED. COULD SEE WINDS
SPEEDS APPROACH 30 KTS ABOVE 3000 FEET...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT MENTION
THIS JUST YET. OF BIGGER CONCERN...WILL BE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO AREAS NORTH OF KRSL AND KSLN AFTER 06Z/SUN. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CEILINGS DROPPING TO AROUND 5000 FEET BETWEEN
06-09Z/SUN ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER 12Z/SUN FOR KRSL AND KSLN. THIS IS PAST THE
TIME PERIOD OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE BUT WORTH A MENTION FOR AVIATION
PLANNING PURPOSES ON SUN.
KETCHAM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
TODAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY IS DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWEST
COAST...WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND IT IN CANADA. THIS
FIRST ANOMALY WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
SECOND AFFECTING THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL OFFER DIFFERENT HAZARDS ACTUALLY...SO WILL
KEEP THEM SEPARATE FOR THIS DISCUSSION.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FIRST SYSTEM. NOT SO
MUCH FOR CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE IT WILL BE SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EVENT...BUT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE MAIN
SATURATED LAYER IS GOING TO BE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOUT 750 OR
800MB. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE. SNOW IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. CENTRAL KANSAS MAY SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULDNT
SEE ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME...AND
WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM. AS PRECIPITATION
STARTS...TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH EVERYWHERE TO
PRODUCE SNOW. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT TO MELT THE SNOW (PER THE
GFS)...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING WOULD KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION LIQUID. THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW AGAIN BY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CAUSE ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND TO BLOW AROUND...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES.
AS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A BAND
OF SEVERAL INCHES...CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT MORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...THAT BAND COULD SHIFT SOME AS WELL. THE WICHITA METRO AREA
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
FAR SOUTHERN AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD SEE MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE A QUICK EXIT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...TAKING ALL
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. HAVE THEREFORE CLEARED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM ALL AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CLEARED OUT SKY COVER
QUICKER. TEMPERATURES ARE A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME...WITH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING BECAUSE OF UNKNOWN SNOW COVER. SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS AS THIS IS THE AREA THAT WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE A
SNOW PACK.
SCHRECK
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN VERY MINIMAL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
AS ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE RETREATS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...OUR
NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST
CONUS. LEE TROUGHING HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
THE UPPER FLOW HAS BEGUN TO FLATTEN OUT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOUTH
WINDS KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAST SO FAR THIS EVENING. THESE
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. EVEN THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SAT AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 42 28 39 23 / 0 10 40 50
HUTCHINSON 42 22 35 17 / 0 10 50 50
NEWTON 40 26 35 19 / 0 10 50 50
ELDORADO 40 26 38 19 / 0 10 40 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 43 28 43 23 / 0 10 30 50
RUSSELL 45 19 27 11 / 0 10 80 20
GREAT BEND 42 20 28 12 / 0 10 80 30
SALINA 42 24 33 15 / 0 10 70 40
MCPHERSON 43 25 35 18 / 0 10 60 40
COFFEYVILLE 44 26 41 23 / 0 10 30 50
CHANUTE 43 27 39 21 / 0 10 30 50
IOLA 41 27 38 22 / 0 10 30 50
PARSONS-KPPF 43 25 40 21 / 0 10 30 50
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
