FXUS65 KFGZ 260400
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND DRY NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES COLDER 
THAN TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ALONG THE KAIBAB 
PLATEAU...GRAND CANYON...AND AREAS SURROUNDING FLAGSTAFF SUNDAY 
MORNING. MORE SIGNIFICANT UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY 
EVENING...THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES PREVAIL ACROSS 
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS HAVE LIGHT WINDS...WITH 
THE EXCEPTION OF SEDONA WHERE THE NORTHEAST WIND IS GUSTING TO 
AROUND 20 MPH. OTHER SITES ON THE LEE (SOUTHWEST SIDE) OF THE 
MOGOLLON RIM MAY ALSO FEEL SIMILAR WINDS. 800 PM TEMPS WERE WITHIN A 
FEW DEGREES OF 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST TO 
LOWER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /325 PM MST/...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LARGE LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL 
CONTINUE TO ADVECT COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH 
SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS A WEAK 
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE STATE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS...ANYWHERE FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE 
KAIBAB PLATEAU. BY MONDAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING A BROAD 
TROUGH...WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE FEATURES...NEARING 
THE SOUTHWEST. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT AT THIS POINT AS TO THE 
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WHICH RESULTS IN CLEARLY 
DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT FOR 
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD 
BEFORE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE DRY. TEMPERATURES 
SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL 
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND 5-15KT FOR THE FCST PERIOD. AVIATION 
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........LATTO/MAS
AVIATION.......DB

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.