FXUS61 KCAR 061949
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
249 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT SC DECK FOR THE NW
AND FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA AT LEAST THRU THE EVE...WITH SCT SN
SHWRS AND FLURRIES. FURTHER S ACROSS E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...
BOTH CLDS AND FLURRIES BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR. PREDICTED SFC-500M
LAPSE RATES AND SFC-925 MB WINDS INDICATE A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS
SOUTH OF THE DOWNWIND SHADOW OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS LATE TNGT...
ALLOWING AT LEAST A 5 TO 8 DEG C SFC BASE INVERSION POTENTIAL OVR
LOW LYING AREAS LIKE THE INTERIOR LOWER PENOBSCOT VLY. SUBSEQUENTLY
WE LOWERED LOW FROM MAV/MET MOS BY 5 DEG F OR SO IN THIS AREA.
BOTH CLDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP OVRNGT LOWS UP SOMEWHAT OVR THE NW
AND FAR N.

SKIES WILL START MCLR TO PTLY CLDY OVR THE FA MON MORN...WITH CLDS
INCREASING THE MOST ACROSS WRN AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA MON AFT
AHEAD OF A WEAK CLIPPER S/WV ADVANCING E FROM THE LOWER GRAT LKS.
HI TEMPS MON WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK OPEN WAVE TROF LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. THERE IS
LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SO QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT.
HOWEVER RATIOS LOOK TO BE HIGH AS MODELS HAVE COME TO AGREE THAT
THE MAX OMEGA IS IN THE FAVORABLE GROWTH REGION...AND GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS IN AN OPEN WAVE PATTERN...DECIDED TO GO WITH A 15 TO 1
RATIO WITH THIS WAVE WHICH YIELDS ALMOST 2 INCHES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST. WILL STICK TO THE MIDNIGHT CREWS WX AND
GO WITH VERY LIGHT STRATIFORM SNOW EXCEPT FOR WELL OFF THE COAST.

AFTER THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIKED THE MIDNIGHT CREWS
DECISION TO GO WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR A LOW TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH THE HIGH OVER THE CWA DURING THE
PEAK DIURNAL COOLING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
OF THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST TO THE WEST
OF THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE GMOS AND
NEW GFS WHICH YIELDED CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN REGION OF
THE STATE AND INTO OUR CWA BY LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE BEGINNING OF
THIS STORM IT LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW ACCORDING TO CRITICAL
THICKNESS VALUES SO WILL CALL FOR STRATIFORM SNOW ACROSS CWA AT
THIS POINT. 
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHILE A NEW LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND TRACKS ACROSS
THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY. APPEARS AS IF IT WILL COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR ALL SNOW
BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OR POSSIBLE A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN
FOR A TIME DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. HOWEVER
IT APPEARS AS IF IT WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MOST MAINE WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR ALL TAF SITES XPCTD OVRNGT THRU MON.

SHORT TERM: NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL BE VFR UNDER CLOUDY SKIES
MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BGR AND BHB LOOK TO BE IFR IN LIGHT
STRATIFORM SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW ALL SITES TO GO VFR. MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN OVER ALL TAF SITES DURING THE LATTER
PERIOD WEDNESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY IN SNOW TO
BEGIN WITH. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT AND INTO
THU...THEN MNLY VFR THU NIGHT AND FRI.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNINGS OVR THE OUTER WATERS HAVE BEEN
TRANSFORMED TO AN SCA. WILL CONT THE SCA OVR THE INNER HARBOR
WATERS TIL LATE EVE FOR FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...AFTER WHICH
THE GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH. OVR THE OUTER WATERS...THE
SCA HAS BEEN SET TO EXPIRE VERY LATE TNGT...WITH SEAS XPCTD TO
FIRST DIMINISH BELOW 5 FT ERLY THIS EVE...THEN GUSTS BLO 25 KT AT
EXPIRATION TIME. BOTH SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS ON MON.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE WEST OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND A GALE WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED
AS IT APPROACHES AS STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ATTM.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/DOODY