FXUS65 KPIH 281044
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
344 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING BEHIND WEAK COLD
FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH SOUTHEAST IDAHO OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS ALONG UT AND WY BORDER
REGIONS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SPREAD
EAST TO NEAR THE POCATELLO AIRPORT. EXPECT FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT
AND DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THEREFORE...MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG DURING OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. DSH
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
BULK OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. HAVE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SET UP CLOSER TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS...THE COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER
EAST. HAVE RAISED TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED AS BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. MUCH OF THE WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL UNTIL
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY FROM EACH OTHER AND
RUN TO RUN ON WHAT HAPPENS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z GFS
AND 12Z EUROPEAN HAD SHOWN A DEEP COLD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EUROPEAN HAS SWITCHED BACK TO A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SOLUTION WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOW CHANCE PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...MAIN PROBLEM THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW STRATUS AND FOG
THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR KPIH THROUGH KBYI AND KTWF. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL BE A
PROBLEM IN THIS AREA THROUGH 18Z...LIFTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BUT NOT FULLY DISSIPATING TIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT
SUCH PROBLEMS AT KSUN OR KPIH SINCE THE WINDS WHERE THE FOG IS
LOCATED IS MORE WESTERLY.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR IDZ017-021-
022.
&&
$$
