FXUS62 KJAX 150852
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
352 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2009
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND RADAR PATTERNS INDICATE SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN
IS MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION. THIS AREA COULD RECEIVE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES TODAY BUT EXPECT THE AMOUNTS TO BE BELOW THE
3 HOURLY FLOOD GUIDANCE. PLAN TO UTILIZE WITH SHORT FUSE
ADVISORIES IF NECESSARY AND NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR ONLY A FEW
COUNTIES. LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE EAST COAST IS NOT AS BAD SO
FAR AS PREVIOUS NIGHT AND EXPECT NO CHANGES TO THE AREA INCLUDED
IN THE ADVISORY.
WARM FRONT IS NORTH OF FCST AREA AND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N
GA TO CENTRAL LA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH TODAY WITH
THE NW PORTION RECEIVING THE MOST RAIN. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR THIS AREA TAPERING TO LIKELY POPS FOR REMAINDER OF SE
GA...THEN CHANCE POPS MOST OF NE FL AND SLGT CHANCE FOR S PORTION.
WITH MODEST CAPES PROGGED FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITH THE SHOWERS. WARM SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE RAIN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SRN
TIER.
TUE NIGHT-WED...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO PUSH THE COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD BUT WITH A SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. POPS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN 40-50% THEN
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 20-30% THRU WED MAINLY ALONG THE ERN
PORTION AS THE FLOW VEERS TO NELY WED AFTN. COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S EXCEPT ALONG THE SRN BORDER.
BREEZY NELY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
WED NIGHT-THU..HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A LARGE FETCH
AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING
SURF AND A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAINLY S OF ST AUGUSTINE.
.LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS FL PENINSULA FRIDAY AND SCOOT
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR WEST WITH A NORTH-
WESTERLY FLOW DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. WRAP-AROUND
CLOUDINESS AND A RESIDUAL CHANCE OF RAIN FRI NIGHT/SAT WILL KEEP
TEMPS AOB CLIMO. THE LOW RACES NEWD SUN/MON AND THICKNESSES WILL
FALL DRAMATICALLY PRODUCING THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION SO
FAR THIS SEASON. PLAN TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND NOT GO
QUITE AS LOW AS GUIDANCE BUT MIN TEMPS WILL STILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CIGS DID NOT DROP AS DRASTICALLY AS MODELS INDICATED
LIKELY DUE TO PRESENCE OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WHERE CIGS HAVE DROPPED ALONG THE COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER TO
LIFR...THEY TEETERED BACK UP TO IFR PRIOR TO 08Z...BUT NOW OBS
INDICATE MORE PERSISTENT VLIFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN MODERATING
NATURE OF LOW CIGS AND FOG AS WELL AS PASSING CLOUDS...DECREASED
FOG/BR IMPACT TONIGHT IN THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. HAVE AMENDED TAFS TO
ADVERTISE PREVAILING IFR AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH TEMPO LIFR POSSIBLE
FROM THROUGH MID-MORNING. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF VLIFR IS AT GNV DUE
TO LESS PASSING LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CIG BANK OVER
CENTRAL FL ADVECTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
&&
.MARINE...QUITE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. RECENT OBS REPORT WSW WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AND
COMBINED SEAS 3-4 FT WITH A 3 FT SWELL AROUND 8 SECONDS. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH NEAR AND OFFSHORE LEGS BY
DAYBREAK WED. HAVE THUS RAISED SCA AND CONTINUED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR NEARSHORE LEGS AND EXTENDED THROUGH SAT FOR OFFSHORE LEGS. LOOKS
LIKE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH/WAVE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
LATER THIS WEEK.
RIP CURRENT RISK...A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
TODAY...HOWEVER AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW THE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL RISE TO AT LEAST A MODERATE LEVEL. THE RISK WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 51 61 37 / 80 50 10 10
SSI 73 55 60 46 / 50 50 20 10
JAX 78 57 62 45 / 40 40 30 10
SGJ 78 60 65 54 / 30 40 30 10
GNV 80 58 66 49 / 20 20 20 10
OCF 81 60 71 53 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-DUVAL-
FLAGLER-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALTAMAHA
SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
FL OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
TRABERT/ENYEDI
