FXUS63 KICT 011735
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1134 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW APPROACHING SW TX WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE A WIND SHIFT/TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NW IA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL KS...WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE NOW STARTING TO SPILL INTO
THE DAKOTAS.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT IT WILL ARRIVE AT KRSL AROUND 00Z AND KICT AROUND
06Z. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR PUSHING-IN ALONG WITH THE VERY
COLD AIR TO LIMIT ANY LOW CLOUDS. THEREFORE AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT
ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE CIGS REMAIN ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. THE CONCERNS
OF SE KS EXPERIENCING SOME WINTRY PRECIP ON WED LOOK TO BE
DIMINISHING AS THIS SYSTEM TAKES A MORE EASTERLY TRACK.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MID LEVEL/ALTOCU BASES BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST.
KED
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS POLAR AIRMASS
SURGES SOUTHWARD AND REMAINS OVER KANSAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
TDY-TONIGHT
ONE MORE DAY OF MILD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE BIG COOL DOWN
HITS THE REGION TOMORROW. CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION
FOR TONIGHT. ONE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD VIA SUB-TROPICAL JET
STREAM...AND REACH EASTERN TEXAS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH AREA OF LIFT
GENERATING NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS ARKANSAS...EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT THE BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE
SECOND UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE POLAR FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA/NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE POLAR FRONT WILL REACH CENTRAL KANSAS
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
WED-THU
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS VERTICAL MOTION
FROM MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. IF MODEL
TRENDS STRENGTHEN UPPER JET DYNAMICS/DIFFLUENCE OF JET AXIS OVER
IOWA/NEBRASKA...WITH APPROACHING NORTHERN PV ANOMALY THEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD BE INCREASED BUT WE WILL KEEP THEM
LOW DUE TO DRY AIR BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. OTHERWISE...COLD AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A RAW WINTER DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR THURSDAY
BUT THE NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES FROM SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO KANSAS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MIGRATING INTO KANSAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
POCKET. THIS WILL KEEP DIURNAL RECOVERY OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN CHECK.
EXTENDED: FRI-MON
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...AS DRY POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION TO TEMPERATURES.
JAKUB
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE EARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KS. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING CEILINGS TO
AROUND 8000 FEET AGL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS TX AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS ARK.
DO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DIVE SOUTHEAST WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM KRSL TO KCNU DURING THE
00-06Z/WED TIME FRAME.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 55 33 39 22 / 10 10 0 0
HUTCHINSON 56 31 38 21 / 10 10 0 0
NEWTON 56 32 39 21 / 10 10 0 0
ELDORADO 55 33 40 22 / 10 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 54 34 43 23 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELL 58 26 37 16 / 10 10 0 0
GREAT BEND 57 27 37 18 / 10 10 0 0
SALINA 57 29 37 19 / 10 10 0 0
MCPHERSON 57 30 38 20 / 10 10 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 55 36 43 24 / 10 20 30 10
CHANUTE 55 35 41 23 / 10 20 20 10
IOLA 55 35 40 23 / 10 20 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 55 36 41 24 / 10 20 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
