FXUS63 KICT 141742
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOWER CIGS TODAY.
COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND IS NOW LOCATED
FROM SOUTHERN MO TO NEAR THE RED RIVER. THE MVFR CIGS HAVE STARTED
TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND AM EXPECTING THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE DIDN'T HIT THE LOWER CIGS TOO HARD WITH
JUST A TEMPO AT MOST SPOTS FOR NOW. AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT BY
21-23Z MOST OF THE BKN CIGS WILL BE GONE. NORTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO RACE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS LATER THIS
MORNING OR IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD OCCUR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS. THE NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE JUST BEFORE SUNSET
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
JAKUB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
TODAY:
COLD FRONT PLOWING ACROSS THE AREA PER FORECAST. FOG HAS BEEN ON
THE WANE...WITH NORTH AMERICAN MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET AGAIN THIS MORNING. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE
UNTIL 1500 UTC AROUND SALINE/LINCOLN COUNTIES WITH A BIT OF MID
LEVEL LIFT MODULATING RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS. MAIN CHALLENGE
WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING WELL
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE AND AS TYPICAL WITH THIS PATTERN...OFTEN WAY
TOO HIGH. EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL
IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AND WAS USED AS STARTING POINT IN GRIDS.
ITS TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO IN THE BALLPARK WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 0000 UTC. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY TODAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW CLOUDS
AROUND ALL DAY.
TONIGHT:
FOR TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...BUT UNTIL MAIN
UPPER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME FAIRLY
THICK HIGH CLOUDS LINGER. DOES APPEAR THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FINALLY
START TO ERODE DURING THE NIGHT.
TUE-TUE NIGHT:
SIDED WITH COOLER NORTH AMERICAN MODEL MODEL TEMPERATURES GIVEN
LOW SUN ANGLE AND SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT EAST FLOW
ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE TO BREAKING STRONG INVERSION. NOT QUITE AS COOL
WITH WARMER AIR JUST OFF THE DECK LIKELY MAKING A RETURN...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE MINS ARE TWEAKED DOWN BY LATER SHIFTS.
WED-MON:
NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 21 9 28 16 / 10 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 16 6 21 16 / 10 0 0 0
NEWTON 17 7 24 16 / 10 0 0 0
ELDORADO 19 10 27 17 / 10 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 25 13 31 17 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELL 9 -3 15 10 / 10 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 11 1 17 13 / 10 0 0 0
SALINA 11 2 15 12 / 10 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 15 4 18 12 / 10 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 42 17 31 17 / 10 0 0 0
CHANUTE 33 12 28 15 / 10 0 0 0
IOLA 31 12 26 14 / 10 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 39 12 30 16 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
