FXUS65 KBOI 292122
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
222 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH 
MONDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS...WX...OR SKY COVER FROM 
TODAY/S CONDITIONS.  LATER MONDAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COME IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE.  CURRENTLY THIS TROUGH 
IS MARKED BY A CLOUD BAND EXTENDING FROM BC SWWD INTO THE NORTH 
PACIFIC...BUT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND THE CLOUDS WILL STRETCH
AND THIN.  NO PCPN IS EXPECTED IN OUR CWA.  THE TROUGH WILL BRING 
COOLING TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN IDAHO ZONES...AND SLIGHT
AIR MASS MIXING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR BETTER AIR QUALITY.  OREGON 
ZONES WILL BE LARGELY BYPASSED BY THIS TROUGH.  TUESDAY WILL BE A 
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM 
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL 
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  ONLY CONCERN WILL BE VALLEY TEMPERATURES.  
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS GET CURRENT MAX 
TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH.  WILL NEED TO 
MONITOR INVERSIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE HOW STRONG THEY GET 
THEN DECREASE MAX TEMPERATURES IF NEEDED.  BY FRIDAY MODELS CONTINUE 
TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL 
WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE REGION.  WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS 
SYSTEM HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE FRIDAY AND 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.  THE IFR 
CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG THAT WAS IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY 
THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED...BUT EXPECT IT TO RE-FORM TONIGHT.  
THIS STRATUS AND FOG WILL REFORM NORTH AND EAST OF KJER AFTER SUNSET 
AND WILL SPREAD WEST AND SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT.  AT THIS TIME DO 
NOT EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MAKE IT TO ANY TAF SITES BUT IT COULD GET 
CLOSE TO KJER.  CAN ALSO EXPECT ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG IN 
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA/LH
AVIATION.....JA