FXUS63 KSGF 251141
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND SNOW TO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME BANDING/COOLER CLOUD
TOPS EVIDENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING...SO SOME OF THOSE COUNTIES ARE
PROBABLY EXPERIENCING SOME BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOWS. WILL WAIT A
COUPLE MORE HOURS...IF NOTHING FURTHER DEVELOPS...WILL PROBABLY
START CANCELING EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER
STORM WARNINGS. FORECAST CHALLENGES THEN TURN TO TEMPERATURES
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...A VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY ON TAP AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED FROM +6/+7C YESTERDAY...DOWN TO -14/-16C
THIS MORNING. GOING TO KEEP A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
AREA THAT WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP STRATUS OVER THE AREA TO LIMIT ANY
DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE
ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW
20S...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE TEENS. SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH INTO IOWA THIS MORNING AND OSCILLATE AROUND THERE AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE KEPT SOME HIGH CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS WE SEE SOME IMPULSES SPIN OFF THE
LOW THROUGH THE DAY.

GOING TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH EFFECTS OF SNOW PACK ON TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEEKEND LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID NEGATIVE TEENS ON
SATURDAY...WARMING TO AROUND -9C BY SUNDAY. FOLLOWED COOLER
MET/WRF GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET UP TO AROUND 30 FOR HIGHS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND BY MONDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS A RIDGE MOVE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS. ECMWF STILL SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF OUR NEXT PRECIP EVENT AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH GFS KEEPING THE AREA DRY. 

&&

.AVIATION...

IR SATL DEPICTING BACK EDGE OF MVFR STRATUS MAKING ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OK THOUGH HAVE SOME DOUBTS GIVEN
CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES AT KJLN WILL ALSO REMAIN IMPACTED DUE TO
BLSN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ056>058-
     069>071-080>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ055-066>068-
     077>079-088-089-093-094-101-102.

KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$