FXUS61 KBTV 101145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH ONTARIO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREENS. THEN THIS WEEKEND EXPECT THE
COLDEST AIRMASS THUS FAR OF THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 450 AM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST
TODAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO DROP EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO ALL
SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY TODAY AS COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS
SET UP IN CENTRAL SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY. WINDS ARE FAIRLY STRONG
OUT OF THE SW...GUSTING TO 30 MPH. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT WILL
SHIFT SOUTH AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...RESULTING FROM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS
SETS UP THE AREA WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. WINDS WILL GUST CLOSE TO 50 MPH.
AS OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON LAKE ONTARIO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREENS...ESPECIALLY KILLINGTON. IN SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY
WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SETS UP WE ARE EXPECTING 3 TO 6 INCHES. 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL GREENS. ELSEWHERE WE WILL
HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
EFFECT THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY THE KILLINGTON
AREA AND EVEN JAY PEAK AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPS WILL DIP INTO
THE TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING FOR CLRING SKIES. SOME --SW
POSSIBLE FOR NE VT W/ NW FLOW...BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE AS
RIDGE CRESTS OVER AREA. ALSO LK EFFECT BAND FALLS APART AS WELL SO
POSSBL TO SEE LINGERING --SW OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CWA/VT BFR IT TAPERS OFF DURING THE MORNING HRS. TEMPS WILL DROP
GOING INTO SAT NGT AS SKIES CLR W/ CALM WINDS. HAVE GONE BLW MDL
NUMBERS FOR OVERNGT LOWS. RIDGE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE TOWARDS SUN
MORNING ALLOWING FOR SSW WINDS TO WORK INTO PORTIONS OF THE ST LAW
VALLEY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. NO PRECIP EXPECTED OVERNGT...BUT INCR
CLD COVER FOR FAR W CWA. NEXT SFC LOW TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA BY SUN. EXPECTING QPF TO BE LGT BASED ON
SFC LOW TRACK TO THE N...BUT WITH CD POOL OF 850 TEMPS DROPPING
DOWN TO -22C/-26C BY EVENING FROM DAY HIGHS NEAR -8C. POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SQUALLS/FLASH FREEZE AS THIS PUSHES E...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. W/ THIS FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NNW ALLOWING FOR LEFTOVER UPSLOPE -SW MONDAY MORNING...CLRING BY
MDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E OVER THE AREA AND REMAINING INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 00Z
AS WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO
45 KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO IMPACT KSLK AS WELL WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH 00Z. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT WEST WINDS 15-25 KTS ON FRIDAY WITH
GUSTS 30-35 KTS ALONG WITH SCT SNOW SHWRS PRODUCING LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK. MAINLY VFR ON SAT/SAT NITE AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACRS THE REGION. AREAS OF MVFR IN
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     NYZ029-087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING 
     FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS