FXUS62 KILM 281526
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1020 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY...AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES REPORTED
THIS MORNING HAS ENDED THE GROWING SEASON FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT
FOR NEW HANOVER. THE 32 DEGREE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ISOPLETH HAS BEEN
ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE COUNTY INCLUDING
OGDEN AND KINGS GRANT TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO BRUNSWICK COUNTY ALONG
THE WEST BANK OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. FROM THE AIRPORT ON SOUTH AND
EAST FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE NOT REALIZED. FOR THE MOST PART WITH
RESPECT TO THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM THIS IS A MOOT POINT AS THE
GROWING SEASON IS ALWAYS DECLARED OVER ON DECEMBER 1. OTHER THAN
SOME PATCHY FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST...NO OTHER FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED UNLESS
NEEDED COME SPRING 2010.
TRIMMED HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY BY 2 DEGREES ACROSS THE
BOARD. DESPITE WEAK WAA AT H850 THE COLD TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ONLY ALLOW MIXING THROUGH ABOUT 2KFT TODAY. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE
AT AROUND 8-9 DEG C. MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC THESE TEMPS YIELD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE A NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BUT REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE NAM BEING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THAN THE GFS. THE RESULT IS A 3 TO 6 HOUR
DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR NOW...FORECAST WILL DEPICT A SMALL CHANCE
INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANCES AREA WIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE AREA WILL BE BRIEFLY UNDER
THE CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MAXIMUMS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH RAIN POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTH. MINS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. RAIN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAXIMUMS WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...THOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND
ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. IF IT PASSES INLAND...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND LOWS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE TERMINALS. CIRRUS WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL NORTHWEST TO NORTH THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
GRADUALLY BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 23Z. NO FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRY LOW
LEVELS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE IFR LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
CHANCE OF IFR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SATURDAY...WIND CHOP HAS SETTLED INTO THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH THE DAY. THE
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A DECREASING
GRADIENT WITH SEAS THAT FOLLOW SUIT BY ABATING BY A FOOT OR TWO.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WE WILL SEE INCREASING SW FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS DIRECTIONS SHIFT FROM SW MONDAY TO NW MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT
SUNDAY TO 4 TO 5 FT BY MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WE WILL SEE A LULL IN CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE. N TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE COULD SEE SHIFTING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...MRR
