FXUS63 KJKL 061955
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY INCHES TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE REORGANIZING WELL TO THE SOUTH AS A
WARM FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD TONIGHT... QUICKLY
LOWERING AND THICKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY AND
EXPECT OUR EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 20S. A BIT
OF A BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP RIDGES AND THE MORE EXPOSED WESTERN
VALLEYS NEAR 30.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD IS THEN PRECIP CHANCES
ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS AS
IT PUSHES INTO EAST KENTUCKY. MODEL TIME/HEIGHTS INDICATE ONLY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY MORNING SO WILL THUS ONLY MENTION A FEW
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. WE WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON
AS LOW LEVELS SLOWLY MOISTEN UP. AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS THEN EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERTAKE
THE SHRINKING LOWER CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIEING FRONT.
WE FAVORED THE COOLER GUIDANCE TEMPS ON MONDAY AND THE WARMER
NUMBERS MONDAY NIGHT... DUE MOSTLY TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED

EARLY TUESDAY WILL SEE A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS A
WARM FNT PUSHES NORTH FROM THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SRN PLAINS. LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS ON TUE AS A STRONG SWRLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE. IN FACT PCPL WATER CLIMBS TO A HEALTHY 1 1/4
INCHES LATE TUE EVENING. COLD FNT TO FOLLOW EARLY WED MORNING WITH
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THE FNTL
PASSAGE AS THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ABOVE 70H AND WHEN THE FNT
DOES COME THRU WED MORNING THE COLUMN IS SO SATURATED THAT THE LI
HAS SOARED TO OVER A +10. RA IS CATEGORICAL FOR TUE NITE/WED MORNING
AND TEMP FCST WILL BE NON DIURNAL. EXPECT LOWS TUE NITE TO OCCUR
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUOUSLY RISE UNTIL MID MORNING ON WED. WITH
THE FNTL PASSAGE TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FLAT AT THE DAILY MAX DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN. THEN THE COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN AND TEMPS WILL
FALL THRU THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FALLING OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THU AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY
SAT A THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT AND HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH HERE.. EXCEPT TO BETTER
MATCH WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOWERING CLOUD BASE BELOW 10K FT MONDAY MORNING.
VIRGA... OR POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING... BUT LEFT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT... GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...ABE