FXUS64 KMAF 221114
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER SUNSET THEY WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL WORK THEIR WAY IN BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN TODAY AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH 
OVER THE WEST COAST/GREAT BASIN MOVES EAST.  BY TONIGHT A STRONG 
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO 
ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO PASSING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

ABUNDANT CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD TRIM A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF HIGHS... 
BUT WITH CLOUD LEVELS BEING ABOVE 850MB AND A WARM SOUTHWEST WIND
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE 60S.  WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED SOME LOW POPS TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH.

INHERITED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS 
STARTING THIS EVENING AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.  THE WATCH 
LOOKS TO BEGIN A LITTLE EARLY AS TROUGH OVER ARIZONA AT 00Z TONIGHT...
BUT MOUNTAIN TOPS COULD GET STARTED EARLIER AS 700 MB WIND OF 40KTS
OF MORE DEVELOPS TONIGHT.  MET GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHEST WIND AT
GDP NOT BEING TILL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING.

OTHER CONCERN TO DEAL WITH IS POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER.  BELIEVE 
CWA WILL BE ON SOUTH EDGE OF POTENTIAL WINTER WX EVENT WEDNESDAY... 
WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO 
MIXED PRECIP IN THE EVENING AND THEN OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
GDP WILL GET SNOW EARLIER.  ETA QPF TAKES PRECIP SOUTH ACROSS DAVIS 
MOUNTAINS AND TRANS PECOS... WHILE GFS TAKES IT OVER SE NM TONIGHT 
AND ACROSS THE VAN HORN REGION... UPPER TRANS PECOS... AND PERMIAN 
BASIN WEDNESDAY. SO MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT BUT WILL CONTINUE TOWARD
GFS WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH.  WILL LEAVE SNOW IN THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THAT BY THE TIME PRECIP CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW MOST OF IT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A PACIFIC FRONT 
THROUGH WITH A COLDER AIRMASS COMING DOWN BEHIND A POLAR FRONT 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL CHRISTMAS 
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AND NORTHERLY WIND REINFORCES
THE COLD AIRMASS.  A SOUTHERLY WIND DOES NOT RETURN TILL MONDAY.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY 
     COUNTY.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 PM 
     CST /5 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... 
     DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

$$

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