FXUS62 KFFC 102223
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
523 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A VERY COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE 20S FOR NORTH AND
MOST OF CENTRAL GA...EXCEPT LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES. WE ARE WELL PAST THE GROWING SEASON...SO NO FREEZE WARNING
WILL BE POSTED. HOWEVER...ALL RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PERFORM
THE 3 P'S CHECK... PEOPLE/PETS/PLANTS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS EAST ON
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE
EASTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND...SPREADING GULF MOISTURE
UP AND OVER A WEDGE OF COLD AIR DRAINING DOWN FROM THE NE. THE
OVERRUNNING EVENT WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
REACHES... THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER ALL AREAS EARLY ON SATURDAY.
TIMING IS CRITICAL... IF ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIGHT RAIN CAN SPREAD FAR
ENOUGH NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET FOR THOSE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A FRANKLIN TO MONTICELLO TO WARRENTON LINE WHERE LOWS DIP TO
FREEZING. HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THIS AREA FOR NOW...
AS DON'T EXPECT THE RAINS TO REACH THIS FAR NORTH UNTIL TEMPS WARM
JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THEREFORE...WON'T MENTION ANY WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE ZONES AT THIS TIME. JUST BE AWARE OF THIS POTENTIAL IF RAINS
SPREAD NORTHWARD FASTER THAN EXPECTED. STILL HAVE SEVERAL MORE MODEL
RUNS TO GANDER BEFORE THIS THREAT MAY OCCUR... SO WILL CONTINUE TO
FINE TUNE THIS IN THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL HOLD RAIN CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT IT
APPEARS THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF VALUES COULD BEEN SEEN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON- EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. OVERALL FOR THE EVENT...EXPECT MAYBE 1/2 TO 1
INCH OF RAIN OVER NORTH GA...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL GA.
THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD COME OVER A LONG DURATION OF LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LACK OF INSTABILITIES AND STRONG UPPER
SUPPORT WILL HINDER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION
A COOL...STABLE RAIN. OTHERWISE...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER LOWS FOR
TONIGHT WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED... THEN THE WARMER
MAV HIGHS ON FRIDAY UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE. TOOK A MAV AND MET BLEND
REMAINING PERIODS.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM THIS RUN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FUEL MOISTURE'S ARE DRYING THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THEREFORE...EXPECT FUEL MOISTURE'S TO FALL BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH 4 TO
5 HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES HAS WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 1000 TO 1800
HOURS ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND RAINS BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND... SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AFTER FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. SCT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENT GUSTY NW
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT BY 00Z. PLAN TO HOLD ONTO AT LEAST
8-10KTS AT ATL OVERNIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING WINDS SLIGHTLY BY FRIDAY
LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. AS
THE RIDGE SLIPS EASTWARD...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT FROM NW TO NE
BY AROUND 14-16Z FRI...THEN GO EASTERLY BY LATE FRI AFTN. AT THIS
TIME...NOT EXPECTING MID CLOUDS OR RAIN CHANCES TO CREEP UP INTO THE
ATL AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z SAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 24 49 30 41 35 / 0 0 10 70 60
ATLANTA 26 50 34 43 37 / 0 0 10 80 50
BLAIRSVILLE 19 43 22 41 34 / 0 0 5 70 60
CARTERSVILLE 22 49 29 45 36 / 0 0 5 70 50
COLUMBUS 30 48 38 46 44 / 0 10 30 80 50
GAINESVILLE 23 45 30 41 35 / 0 0 5 70 60
MACON 30 49 37 44 42 / 0 5 30 80 70
ROME 22 47 28 44 37 / 0 0 5 70 40
PEACHTREE CITY 24 48 33 42 38 / 0 0 20 80 50
VIDALIA 30 49 39 48 43 / 0 10 40 80 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...
TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHITE...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
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