FXUS63 KDLH 081851 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1251 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.UPDATE... MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NOW EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE PLAINS. RADAR ECHOES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL MN/NW WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS INITIAL
WAVE OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY SPREAD
NEWD WITH LEAD S/W TROF AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY COME AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WRN LK
SUPERIOR..AND A MARKED INCREASE IN STRENGTH/ORGANIZATION OF LK
EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAS BEEN NOTED IN KDLH RADAR DATA DURING THE
PAST HOUR OR SO. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN IN THE 
BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/WASHBURN AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. OTHER ECHOES FROM THE WRN APOSTLE ISLANDS TO PORT WING AND
JUST EAST OF SUPERIOR ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE 1-3 PM.
ADDITONAL ORGANIZATION AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH OF LAKE EFFECT
BAND IS EXPECTED AS DEEP LAYER SATURATION SPREADS NEWD ACROSS THE
AREA AS WELL.

MEANWHILE..LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES HAS BEGUN FROM PINE CITY/HINCKLEY
TO THE HAYWARD LAKES REGION..AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THRU MID AFTERNOON. INITIALLY..RATES WILL NOT
BE TOO HEAVY AS THE LIFT/MOISTURE STILL NEEDS TO OVERCOME SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL UNSATURATED AIR..BUT ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR 2
ARE EXPECTED BY 5-6 PM IN AREAS FROM LAKE MILLE LACS EWD TO
HAYWARD/PARK FALLS. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF VERY COLD AIR..THE
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN APPROXIMATELY 200 MB DEEP
ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THIS STORM..WHICH
WILL ACT TO INCREASE SNOW PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY..DESPITE BEGIN
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NW OF THE MAX FORCING AND UPWARD MOTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND SNOW
AMOUNTS IN UPDATE JUST ISSUED..MAINLY TO DOWNGRADE THE INTERIOR
OF NE MN TO AN ADVISORY. WE EXPECT A BAND OF 3-6 INCHES ON THE NW
PERIPHERY OF THE WARNING AREA FROM THE I35 CORRIDOR AND HIGHWAY 61
EASTWARD. OTHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.
 MILLER/MELDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/ 

AVIATION...12/08 18Z TAFS
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN HEAD 
NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW 
WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL BE 
SPREADING NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...REACHING THE BORDER 
COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WAS ALREADY SPREADING THROUGH 
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. VSBYS WILL BE 
DROPPING TO 1 TO 3 MILES...THEN EVENTUALLY TO A HALF TO A MILE FOR 
THE KBRD TO KDLH TO KBFW AREAS AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. IFR OR LOW MVFR 
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR MOST 
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AS 
WELL...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN 
ISSUE.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR 
     MNZ012-019-034>036.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR 
     MNZ020-021-037-038.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR 
     WIZ006>009.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY 
     FOR LSZ121-140>148.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$