FXUS64 KLCH 091605
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1005 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT COLD CONTINENTAL
AIR...ORIGINATING OVER THE SNOW-COVERED FIELDS OF KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES.
THIS ROBUST ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL MORE THAN OFFSET THE EARLY
DECEMBER INSOLATION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER HOLD
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO FALL.
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAILY MAXIMUMS WERE SET THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009/
AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN VFR. LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG THAT
PLAGUED ALL AIRPORTS MUCH OF THE MORNING HAS RAPIDLY LIFTED WITH
ONLY KBPT AND KLCH SHOWING SLIGHT MVFR RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING
THESE TO REACH VFR CATEGORY SHORTLY AS COLD FRONT RACES
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTS AT OR OVER 20 KNOTS ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND
DECREASE THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN 5-10 KNOTS AT AREA
TERMINALS...WITH SCT TO BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009/
UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME FORMING AS
COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES IN AND OVER TAKES THE AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THEN DROPPING OR HOLDING STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...PRE-FRONTAL TROF HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALMOST ALL THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS HELPED CLEAR OUT SKIES AND DISSIPATE MOST
FOG WITH ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG
SEEMS TO BE FORMING JUST AHEAD OF MAIN COLD. CANADIAN COLD FRONT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS REACHED NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS AND IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
IN THE THE NEAR TERM...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW HOURS UNTIL COLD FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING THROUGH ABOUT 6 AM.
EXTENDED IT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AS OBSERVATIONS AROUND
VERNON AND BEAUREGARD PARISH ARE AT 1/4SM. KJAS ALSO HAS REACHED
1/4SM...HOWEVER EFFECTS OF FRONT SHOULD BE THERE SOON TO LIFT FOG.
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS HIGHS SHOULD BE
REACHED THIS MORNING RIGHT BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OR HOLD STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COLD CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AS DEW POINTS IN THE
20S OVERTAKE THE REGION AND WINDS DROP OFF. TIME HEIGHTS FROM THE
PROGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TOTALLY
"BOTTOMING OUT" WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED NORTHERN ZONES AND
NEAR FREEZING SOUTH.
RAIN COMES BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PROVIDES STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...WITH EVEN A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...IS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF DURING
SATURDAY MORNING. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 1/2
AND 1 INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL THEN TAKE PLACE
ON SUNDAY....BEFORE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
RUA
MARINE...
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL LINGERS OR MAY FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BEFORE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THEREFORE...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 59 33 53 40 55 / 0 0 0 20 50
KBPT 56 33 53 42 54 / 0 0 0 20 50
KAEX 53 30 51 34 50 / 0 0 0 10 50
KLFT 62 34 53 39 53 / 0 0 0 20 50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
