FXUS64 KBMX 092108
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
308 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TODAY TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY PRETTY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. CLEAR
SKIES WITH A 20 DEGREE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS LARGE
RANGE IS BECAUSE OF TWO SEPARATE FRONT THAT HAVE BEEN WORKING THEIR
WAY THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. THE FIRST IS ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF
OUR CWA AT THIS HOUR...AS THERE IS ONLY ONE MORE ASOS...CLAYTON
IN BARBOUR COUNTY...THAT HAS A DEW POINT OF 54. THE SECOND FRONT
IS MARKED BY A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT...WHERE WINDS BECOME MUCH
MORE NORTHERLY. SPEAKING OF WINDS...OUR WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM THIS EVENING. MANY AREAS ARE STILL SEEING WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH BECAUSE OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS TO
BEGIN TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS WEATHER ACTIVITY PULLS FURTHER
OFF TO THE NORTH.
WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND NO
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY IS
GOING TO BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE USHERED IN WITH
THIS SURFACE HIGH. BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY MORNINGS LOOK TO BE
COLD...BUT FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME READINGS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DROPPING INTO THE LOW
20S AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE CREEPS OVER US AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING TAKES FULL EFFECT.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCES OF RAIN COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST ON
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA GIVING US SOME EASTERLY
FLOW...AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER GULF LOW.
THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS RIGHT NOW IS THAT CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS
NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR...LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANYTHING
STRONG TO SEVERE. THERE WAS SOME TALK ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
GETTING SOME FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING...OR OTHER WINTER
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP WARM
LAYER KEEPING EVERYTHING AT THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID.
AFTER THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...WE LOOK TO DRY OUT
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. A SURFACE LOW REFLECTION...NOWHERE NEAR AS IMPRESSIVE AS
YESTERDAY'S...WILL PULL MOISTURE UP INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA STARTING
ON MONDAY...GIVING US THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
I WON'T GET TOO DETAILED SEEING AS HOW THERE THIS IS DAY 6 IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THE LLJ GETS CRANKED UP PRETTY WELL MONDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT GETTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ...AND THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SHEAR AS WE WILL
BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ON THE DOWN SIDE...ENSEMBLES REMAIN
AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER ON A FINAL SOLUTION FOR MONDAY'S
SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND MONDAY'S SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT AFTER
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ON SUN/MON/TUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMALS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KTS ALREADY BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AROUND 22Z. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY APPROACH MGM AND TOI THIS EVENING BUT ALL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE VFR CRITERIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 27 45 26 45 31 / 10 0 10 10 50
ANNISTON 29 47 27 47 35 / 10 0 10 10 50
BIRMINGHAM 28 47 26 49 32 / 10 0 10 10 50
TUSCALOOSA 30 47 28 46 34 / 10 0 10 10 70
CALERA 31 48 27 47 35 / 10 0 10 10 70
AUBURN 33 49 28 48 35 / 10 0 0 10 70
MONTGOMERY 35 51 29 51 38 / 10 0 10 20 80
TROY 37 50 31 51 38 / 10 10 10 20 80
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KTS ALREADY BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AROUND 22Z. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY APPROACH MGM AND TOI THIS EVENING BUT ALL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE VFR CRITERIA.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
&&
$$
27/88
