FXUS64 KHGX 231153
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
553 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY WENT WITH MVFR CEILINGS ALL DAY TODAY WITH VCSH IN THE MORNING
AND VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES.
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA RACES THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE THIS
COVERED WITH A TEMPO GROUP THAT MENTIONS WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS.
CEILINGS WITH LIFT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON
THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RUNNING FROM THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
QUITE STRONG AT 45 KTS. SATELLITE BLENDED IPW INDICATE 1.1 INCHES
OVER CWFA (ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF SEASONAL NORMAL VALUE). LARGE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE ROUNDING BROAD DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FAST
APPROACHING OUR REGION. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE DIFFLUENT
LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NW
ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PUSH RAPIDLY ACROSS REGION POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SABINE AREA BY 12Z. WE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE BUT RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL LATER TONIGHT FOR
EASTERN HALF OF CWFA. SWODY1 INDICATE SLIGHT RISK SEVERE STORMS
FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT. WE DID MENTION
POSSIBLE SEVERE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT WILL USHER COLD AND DRY AIR
INTO OUR REGION WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO THE 30S MOST AREAS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS INDICATED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION
POSSIBLY BRINGING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAINLY FROM COASTAL
WATERS SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SW CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE OUR REGION A CHANCE OF RAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN HANDLING THIS STORM SYSTEM. 37

MARINE...
FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL CARRY CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE NEARSHORE 
WATERS AND ADVISORY FLAGS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY 
MORNING. ADVISORY FLAGS WILL BE UP FOR BOTH WATERS ON THURSDAY AFTER 
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST 
BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SEAS WILL COME DOWN 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN POSSIBLY PICK UP ON SUNDAY IN 
RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  49  53  32  49 /  60  60  20  10  10 
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  52  58  35  52 /  60  80  40  10  10 
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  55  61  40  52 /  60  80  50  10  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY 
     NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE 
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND 
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP 
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP 
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO 
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION/MARINE...42