FXUS63 KSGF 040521
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1122 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD AIRMASS HAD INFILTRATED THE REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE OZARKS TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW -10 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STEADY OFF IF NOT RISE A BIT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RISING
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BRING MODEST WARMING ON SATURDAY.
A MINOR TROUGH WILL RIDE THROUGH THE EVOLVING ZONAL PATTERN SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY EXIST ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE DOES NOT DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
INTO THE DENDRITIC ICE GROWTH ZONE. IN ANY CASE...PRECIPITATION
AND ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.
THE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. A DEEPER TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. WHILE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THE
GFS SUGGEST VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MAY SPILL INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST FORECASTS SHOULD
BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS CAN
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION WILL CAUSE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BREEZES...POTENTIALLY BECOMING CALM AT TIMES. MEANWHILE SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM OVERHEAD. NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED.
CRAMER
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
