FXUS63 KMKX 262111 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
311 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT-
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

UPPER LOW CONTINUES CYCLONIC LOOP OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHILE
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS IS HEADING EAST. UPPER
LOW SHOULD TURN SOUTHEAST AND HEAD FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT. 

INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE WITH OTHER
INTERESTING CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS THAT HOOKS BACK TO THE WEST OVER COLUMBIA COUNTY. BRIEF
BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WITH THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...88D SHOWING 35 TO 38 DBZ ECHOES IN
THIS BAND.

WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAKE SHORE AND SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. WILL END UP WITH HIGH END ADVISORY/LOW END WARNING IN
PARTS OF WALWORTH/RACINE/KENOSHA WITH AROUND 6 INCHES AND ALSO IN
EASTERN SHEBOYGAN WHERE LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES TO BRUSH COAST.  

ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN THIRD OF CWA 2 TO 4 INCHES BY TONIGHT SEEMS
REASONABLE. 

MOST IMPRESSIVE LAKE BAND AIMING INTO GREEN BAY PORTION OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL PROBABLY NEVER BACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
AFFECT SHEBOYGAN COUNTY.  

PESKY DRY POCKET OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN RESULTING IN
CLEARING...FOR A WHILE...IN EXTREME WEST. WILL HAVE LESS
CLOUDS...LOWER POPS...AND LOWER TEMPS THERE. CLOUDS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY FILL IN AGAIN.  

SUNDAY-
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

UPPER LOW HEADS EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO
INDIANA/MICHIGAN BORDER. FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST BUT REMAINS
CYCLONIC. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SEEM A GOOD BET AS ANY BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST SHOULD LEAD TO DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.  

MONDAY-
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

KICKER SHORT WAVE DIGS DOWN IN TO GREAT LAKES...MAINLY EASTERN
LAKES. THIS DOES RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC AND A BIT OF
SURFACE TROUGHING IN WEST-EAST FASHION...ESPECIALLY EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. FLURRIES STILL POSSIBLE...BUT NOT A BIG DEAL. 

TUESDAY-
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT RESULTS IN QUIET WEATHER. 

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY-
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

12Z VERSIONS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON COVERAGE
AND AMOUNT OF QPF. DETAILS ON PHASING OF NORTHERN BRANCH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ARE IN QUESTION. BEST WE CAN DO IS SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW. BEST SURFACE WAVE WILL BE WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH
SYSTEM OVER GULF OF MEXICO.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY- 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TO AMPLIFY AND DIG ACROSS
MIDWEST...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY.  ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE FLIPPED FROM YESTERDAY. ECMWF HAD STRONGER SYSTEM
YESTERDAY...NOW GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AMPLIFICATION AS SYSTEM
CROSSES WISCONSIN. MODELS ACTUALLY THEN COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AS UPPER LOW REACHES NORTHEAST. 

AGAIN...SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SEEMS TO BE BEST ROUTE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NW IL INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY 
MIDDAY SUNDAY. MAIN SNOW BAND AFFECTING ALL BUT KMSN TAF INTO THIS 
EVENING. IFR CEILINGS AND LIFR VISIBILITIES WITHIN THIS BAND. A BIT 
OF A LULL IN QPF BETWEEN 6-18Z. NE/SW ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS BRINGING 
LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
     060-065-066-070>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...CRAVEN/02
AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR/10