FXUS61 KBOX 281355
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
855 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE MARITIMES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
844AM: PUBLIC PRODUCTS UPGRADED TO A HWW WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
GRIDS BASED ON SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THIS MORNING PERMITTING DEEPER
MIXING AND ASSOCIATED BETTER TRANSFER OF DRY MOMENTUM AS PRES RISES
SHIFT SEWD THRU THE HUD RIVER VALLEY AT 13Z. ALREADY REPORTS OF TREES
DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES WHICH I THINK WILL WORSEN LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTN. SO EVEN THO OFFICIAL CRITERIA OF HWW WILL BE MET IN
ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS...ANTICIPATING ENOUGH PUBLIC IMPACT...ESP WITH
POWER OUTAGES TO JUSTIFY THE UPGRADE. N CT AND N RI ARE ON THE EDGE
OF THE ENVELOPE OF STRONGER WINDS AND MAY ESCAPE WITH ONLY WIND ADVY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE...USING THAT BUFFER ZONE FOR THE HWW...LEFT
COASTAL RI AS THE ONLY AREA WITH WIND ADVY. COULD SEE SEE BLUE HILL
HIT 55 KTS TODAY.
SHOWERS ENDING SE MASS NOW AND WILL UPDATE THE SHOWERS AND CLEARING
AT 10 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MAY STILL HAVE MARGINAL WIND ADVSY CRITERIA OVER OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WINDS AS
GRADIENT RELAXES. GFS/NAM TIME SECTIONS SHOW AREA OF SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING TONIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MOCLDY SKIES...MAINLY INTERIOR WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATEST.
SUN...HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS SNE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DECREASES. EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SW FLOW
INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST
INTERIOR ZONES TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID
IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S...TO THE LOWER 40S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO. MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL BE
RAIN...HOWEVER IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS THE END. THE BEST CHANCE
OF THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER BY THEN SO IF THERE ARE ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION THEY
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.
HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...INTO
THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...A BLUSTERY AND CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850
MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -6 AND -8C...SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IN FACT...PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY
CONSIDERING OUR RECENT WEATHER. SHOULD GENERALLY BE A DRY DAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FAIRLY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A PRETTY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK AND TO AN
EXTENT THE TIMING. THIS IS STILL IN THE DAY 5 TO 6 TIME FRAME
MEANING QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EVEN IF THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT IN SOME ASPECTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS CERTAINLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THOUGH TO INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHILE ITS A LONG WAY OFF...AT
THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR IF THE SYSTEM ENDS
UP TAKING AN EASTERN MOST ROUTE...BUT MOST LIKELY RAIN WILL BE THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.
IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL...BOTH MODELS INDICATE WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
WITH A MORE INTERIOR TRACK THROUGH NEW YORK STATE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE WINDY. HOWEVER...A MORE COASTAL TRACK AS INDICATED BY THE GFS
REMAINS A BLUSTERY SOLUTION AS WELL. AGAIN THIS IS FAIRLY FAR OUT
IN TIME...SO THIS FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE.
FRIDAY...
BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE IS ALWAYS LOW THIS FAR OUT INTO A
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH TODAY...STRONG W/NW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. NUMEROUS
GUSTS 35-45 KT EXPECTED THRU 20Z. WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CIGS CLEARING SHORTLY. SHOWERS ON CC AND KACK ENDING BY 1430Z.
TONIGHT...VFR. A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AROUND 4K FT EXPECTED IN THE
INTERIOR WITH A LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 3K FT...MAINLY NW OF
BAF-ORH-MHT. DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT STILL GUSTY IN THE EARLY
EVENING.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
FMH-HYA-ACK.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF SCT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN. GUSTY SFC WINDS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG GALES TODAY ALL WATERS. A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KT
THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS BUT NO STORM WARNING AS
NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN MWW.
TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GALES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER OPEN WATERS AND WE EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
SUN...SCA WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING...STRONGEST EASTERN WATERS.
THEN WINDS BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING BUT MAY
STILL HAVE G25 KT IN THE SW FLOW OVER S COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS. SCA SEAS PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY CULMINATING IN
SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A FEW PERIODS OF MARGINAL
GALES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THOUGH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH.
WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. SCA LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT HAS NOT FALLEN
TO THE FREEZING MARK SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE LATEST IN THE SEASON
THAT BOSTON HAS GONE WITHOUT HITTING 32F WAS DEC 2ND 1975. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE BREAK THAT RECORD...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE SUNDAY NIGHT...
AND NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A LOWER
PROBABILITY THEN.
WILL REVIEW THE 4 CLI SITES BEING TOP 5 WARMEST FOR NOV IN THE AFTN
RELEASE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>024-
026.
NH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ011-012-
015.
RI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>005.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-
251-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG/DRAG 855A
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG 855A
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...
