FXUS64 KSJT 062124
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
324 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WITH LARGE INTERMEDIATE TEMPERATURE
SWINGS WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS
REMAINS ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO OUR BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE NAM BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS TIMING LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONT NEAR LUBBOCK.
SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH MAINLY
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS TOMORROW CLOSE TO MEX MOS
GUIDANCE LOOK REASONABLE. HOWEVER...I DECIDED TO UNDERCUT THE
ABILENE MEX MOS NUMBER A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK TOMORROW...I BELIEVE AN
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR ABILENE OF 49 IS TOO WARM.
OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT...WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY PRODUCE
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE MAINLY DRIZZLE ACROSS ALL OUR
COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD FORECAST. A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATER TOMORROW NIGHT.
THUS...SURFACE WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A WARMING SURGE AND PRODUCE AFTERNOON
HIGHS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY AROUND 70. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH WILL USHER INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR ALL BUT OUR BIG
COUNTRY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR WILL HOLD HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...
THE GFS MOVES THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AT THE SURFACE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. HOWEVER...APPEARS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...THE
GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...THE PICTURE IS NOT AS CLEAR. THE GFS INDICATES
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER
AND INTO THE BIG COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE
THIS SOLUTION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HERE...I DECIDED TO GO WITH
THE GFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 32 44 40 68 37 / 0 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 34 55 44 72 41 / 0 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 33 60 45 71 44 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/HUBER
