FXUS63 KFGF 240944
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
344 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009

.SHORT TERM...
THE LONG DURATION STORM HAS STARTED. NEW MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
BE VERY CONSISTENT AND SHOWS NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PRESENT
FCST OR SNOW TOTALS. RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL WAVES OF PCPN MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST IN LARGE MOISTURE FEED FROM LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS
INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA AND ERN ND. STILL A COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH A
STRONG UPPER LOW IN WRN TX AND A SEPARATE UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST THRU MONTANA. LOW PRESSURE ASSOC WITH THE SOUTHERN STORM
WILL MOVE AS EXPECTED INTO MISSOURI AND THEN GET CAPTURED BY THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING MONTANA WAVE AND MOVE NORTH AND THEN WEST INTO
WESTERN IOWA ON FRIDAY. VERY UNUSUAL PATTERN. MOISTURE FEED MAY
GET CUTOFF FOR A WHILE THIS AFTN/EVE BEFORE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO
MISSOURI AND IOWA FRIDAY. THEN FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM BY FAR WITH WIND AND HVY SNOWFALL.
PREV STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL (FROM 6 PM WED TO SATURDAY MORNING) OF
10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE FCST AREA STILL LOOK GOOD. MANY AREAS
WILL HAVE GOTTEN 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...LEAST IN THE
FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  

FOR TODAY...AT THE SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS PASSED DVL
AND JMS IN THE PAST HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
ACTUALLY MODELS TAKE THE SURGE OF COLD AIR MORE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST THAN DUE EAST WITH THE TROUGH NR A GFK-FFM LINE BY 00Z
FRI. TEMPS WEST OF THE TROUGH WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY AND WEST
OF THE TROUGH SNOW MAY STOP FOR A WHILE. TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL
SEE THE IMPACT OF THE MAIN STORM AS IT MOVES INTO MISSOURI/IOWA
AND WARMER AIR WILL SURGE BACK WEST AT THE SFC AND MID LEVEL
TROWAL DEVELOPS INTO ERN ND/NW MN BY 12Z FRI AND WITH PEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING AND TROWAL CONDITIONS FRI AFTN OVER ERN ND. THIS IS
WHEN PEAK SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR. TROWAL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FRI NIGHT BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST AS SFC SYSTEM BEGINS TO FILL
OVER IOWA. TROWAL WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY OVER CNTRL ND
AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST.  

AS FOR HEADLINES...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
LOOK BEST FOR FAR WRN AND SW FCST AREA AS MAX 850 MB WINDS OF
40-50 KTS OCCUR FROM MINOT-BISMARCK THEN INTO CNTRL/ERN SD. LOOK
FOR A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND COMPONENT IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER SHOWING 30-35 KT AVBL. WITH SNOW FALLING...NO
DOUBT IT WILL BE BAD ON FRIDAY AND WE HAVE HIT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN STATEMENTS AND ON THE WEB. AFTER COORD WITH ABR/MPX/FSD IDEA
WAS TO AVOID CONFUSION AND KEEP SIMPLE WINTER STORM WARNING
HEADLINE AND THEN IF NEEDED UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING. COULD GO
EITHER WAY WITH THIS AND ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ERN ND FOR
FRIDAY....BUT DECIDED TO GO WITH NEARBY OFFICE CONSENSUS. DAYSHIFT
CAN EVALUATE POTENTIAL AND TALK WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR A
COORDINATED EFFORT ON WHEN TO GO BLIZZARD.  

.LONG TERM...
ALL FOCUS ON SHORT TERM SO NO CHANGES MADE MONDAY AND BEYOND.  

&&

.AVIATION...
VSBYS CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 1-3 SM RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS MOSTLY 10-20 KFT. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES CAN SEE VSBYS
INCREASING MORE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS SNOW WEAKENS A BIT. CIGS
WILL LIKELY FLUNCUTATE BTWN 10 KFT AND 25 KFT MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS AT FARGO MAY BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTN BUT LIKELY SHOULD
REMAIN EASTERLY OR NORTHEAST AT GFK...TVF AND BJI THRU THE DAY.
DVL WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST.  

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001>003-007-
     029.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ027-028-
     030>032-040.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ004>006-008-
     009-013>017-022>024.

&&

$$
RIDDLE